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| The Scene of a Crime or a Resurgence? |
The Packers limp in with a myriad of problems, mainly on the offense, while the Washington Redskins, perennial sad sacks of the league, as the hot team, especially at home, and in most cases the favorite. The final word on predictions by NFL.com has the Redskins winning 27-17.
Another NFL.com predictor has the Packers winning if certain stars align and the world is not topsy-turvy. But the world is topsy-turvy with Redskins quarterback Kirk Cousins, of all people, having a better season than the best quarterback in the NFL Aaron Rodgers. More this prediction at the end.
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| Kirk Cousins - The New Aaron Rodgers |
Cousins is 10th ranked in yardage (4,166), 12th in TD passes (29) and has thrown 11 interceptions. Rodgers is tied for 10th with Ryan Fitzpatrick in TD passes with 31 (21 in the final 13 games of the season) and 17th in yards with 3,821. He has thrown 8 interceptions, but has thrown 1 in each of the past three games.
Cousins is the flip side of the Rodgers coin. Over the last three games (all wins) the 4th year pro has thrown 11 TDs (4+4+3) with only 3 interceptions while completing 73.0% of his passes for 860 yards. Rodgers, however, over the final three games (1 win and two losses) has thrown for just 3 TDs with 3 interceptions while completing just 58.6% for 646 yards.
The key to this game is going to be both offensive lines. If Dom Capers somehow comes up with an aggressive game plan that puts pressure on Cousins to mask a banged up secondary with cornerback Sam Shields out and Damarious Randall hampered by a groin injury.
The key to that is Clay Matthews. He has to be laser focused on pass rushing. He is just adequate in pass coverage while he can be a difference maker as a pass rusher. If Cousins has no time to pass then coverage is not needed. Six or more sacks will determine if the Packer defense can keep the suddenly potent Cousins out of the end zone. If the Packer plan is to play coverage we are doomed.
Now back to Rodgers. We've been waiting 14 weeks for the Packer offense to break out of its slumber. It has not happened, but today it HAS to and the key is pass protection.
Josh Sitton did yeoman work at left tackle last week with David Bakhtiari out with an ankle injury, but he will be back at left guard this week. If Bakhtiari is out again then either J.C. Tretter has to play left tackle or they move right tackle Bryan Bulaga and insert Tretter at right tackle.
If Bakhtiari can't play I vote for moving Bulaga. Tretter played decent at right tackle and Don Barclay has played not great but better at right tackle than left if Tretter goes down or is ineffective.
Eddie Lacy and James Starks have been up-and-down this season. If Lacy can rip off a couple long gains early and be kept in the game plan then that will help the offense, but realistically Mike McCarthy will abandon the run game early no matter how it's going, so the fate of the Packers season falls on the suspect shoulders of Rodgers where it should be.
Rodgers said this, “Maybe I have to adjust my mindset and kind of let it fly a little more because we’ve had some success doing that. Throwing the ball down the field, adjusting some routes, making some scramble adjustments and playing a little looser because the urgency is up in those moments.”
Rodgers is talking about trying for the intermediate passes 10 to 19 yards and not the deep passes that used to be in the arsenal, but with old man James Jones, Davante Adams, Randall Cobb and Jared Abberderis not speed burners or even close those passes have been few and far between. The only burner is Jeff Janis, but more on him at the end.
This season Rodgers has thrown 64% of passes for 9 yards or less with 15 TDs and 3 interceptions, including 17% on passes at or behind the line scrimmage. The Packer passing attack is dependent upon yards after the catch (YAC), but this year that stat has been down from 6.39 per reception last year to 5.82.
Rodgers has only thrown downfield 36% of the time (23% 10 to 19 yards and 13% beyond). He has thrown 5 TDs and 4 interceptions from 10-19 yards and has 5 TDs with no interceptions from 20 and beyond.
NFL.com had a lot to say about Rodgers with Kevin Patra saying, "Aaron Rodgerstold a local reporter this week "maybe I have to adjust my mindset and let it fly a little more." That is a precursor to Rodgers busting out like he hasn't in the past 10 weeks -- 10 straight weeks of sub-100.0 passer rating. The Washington Redskins have given up the second most passing yards in the NFL over the final three weeks of the season -- to the likes of Kellen Moore, Sam Bradford and Tyrod Taylor, no less. The Packers' offense has floundered worse than any time since the pre-Brett Favre, but Sunday night it will awaken with force. Rodgers will come out slinging from the kickoff and dice up a suspect secondary leaving everyone to wonder why so many wrote off the reigning NFL MVP."
From his mouth to God's ear. Conor Orr added, "Aaron Rodgers said it might be time to let it fly a little, and against the Redskins on Sunday he'll do just that. The Packers are stacked full of players who turn it on when the world is against them, and after a week of enduring the narrative that Kirk Cousins was better this season, Rodgers will be ready to bring the heat. Expect him to throw at least four touchdowns in a thriller. While Cousins will keep pace for a while, it will be Rodgers proving once again why he's the best in the business."
According to Chris Wesseling from NFL.com. "As uninspiring as the Packers have been for three months, they are going to need a secret weapon to beat a Redskins team playing their best ball of the season. That weapon is special teams dynamo Jeff Janis, who will finally inject a much-needed speed element into a somnambulant offense. Janis will make a pair of game-changing plays against a suspect Redskins secondary that has a dirty habit of blowing coverages and missing tackles at inopportune times. The Packers will pull off the "upset," buoyed by their fifth wide receiver."
I've been asking, pleading, yelling and cursing at unleashing Janis since game three, so he is preaching to the choir, but he forgets the elephant in the room. Mike McCarthy hates Janis, plain and simple, end of sentence. So it won't happen.
So the key to downfield is James Jones and Randall Cobb. The key to the middle is Richie Rodgers. If Rodgers finds those guys the Packers win. If the Packers pressure Cousins the Packers win.
We are in the situation where we have to ride the horse that got us here. Is that the team that started 6-0 with wins over Seattle, Kansas City,. Rams and Chargers at home and Chicago and 49ers on the road or the team that finished 4-6 with losses to Lions, Bears and Vikings at Lambeau and to Broncos, Panthers and Cardinals on the road. The wins came against the Lions, Vikings and Raiders on the road and the Cowboys at home.
As you can see the Packers finished 5-3 at home overall, but 1-3 over the final four home games. In fact, all three losses came to the North foes. I don't think that has happened since the Wilderness Years the Packers lost all three division games at Lambeau Field.
We've been waiting for the Packer offense to wake up and once again lead the Pack for the past 11 weeks, but that hasn't happened, YET. However, there are no more weeks to wait after today if they don't again. So snap out of it, so the Packers can make another road run to the Super Bowl like they did back in 2010.
If I had to put money down I will say.....................I'm inclined to say the Redskins win, but I will pry open my wallet even though I didn't win the Powerball and put down $100 on the Packers to win, place and show.
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