Saturday, September 8, 2018

Week 1 and Hopefully not Done


The Packers open the season at LAMBBBBBBBBBBBEEEEEEEEEEAAAAAAUUUUU Field in Green Bay, Wisconsin against da Bears. The first week power rankings has the Packers dropping two spots to No. 9 while the Bears rose nine spots to 15 after making the trade Brian Gutekunst should have made for Kahlil Mack.


Here'a what NFL.com had to say about the Power Rankings.

This is not a simple reaction to the Khalil Mack blockbuster -- it's merely a simple reaction to the Khalil Mack blockbuster. What a move by general manager Ryan Pace, who swashbuckled his way across the front-office universe like Captain James T. Kirk and dealt a blow to the Klingons, Romulans and Gorn ... er, the Vikings, Lions and Packers with the addition of a top-five defensive player. Couple Mack with an already stable defense (much better than the one in Oakland), then further take into account a solid offensive line, a steady RB1 and an ascending franchise quarterback, and it's clear Chicagoans have themselves a squad.

The Packers appear set for a playoff run, although linebacker has been a concern thus far. With third-round pick Oren Burks the latest to go down (though not for the entire season, unlike less-fortunate LB Jake Ryan), the organization has had to scramble. Too bad, because I remember when Burks was making plays in camp and going yard at Coors Field with Dante Bichette and Andres Galarraga. Oh. Wrong Burks. Another note: A roster review mixed with analytics will tell you the Vikes take the NFC North. Be mindful that, as awesome as analytics can be in terms of providing context, the NFL regular season is too short for a numbers-based prediction to be extremely accurate. In the NBA, the 82-game slate allows for trends to surface and have meaning. Shorter point: If Aaron Rodgers gets streaky good in December, it's over.

Now let’s see what they say about the actual game:
ESPN: Point spread: GB -7.5 | Matchup quality: 54.2 (of 100)
Jeff Dickerson's pick: The Bears' defense, led by new pass-rusher Khalil Mack, will no doubt keep the game interesting. But for all the offseason gains made by the Bears on both sides of the ball, the NFL is still a quarterback-driven league, and it's difficult to give the nod to Mitchell Trubisky over Aaron Rodgers. Packers 24, Bears 23
Rob Demovsky's pick: The Packers have dominated this series of late, going 16-4 in their past 20 regular-season meetings when Rodgers has started. This opener has special meaning to Rodgers -- it's his first home game since he broke his collarbone at Minnesota in Week 6 last season. Expect it to be a memorable one. Packers 30, Bears 27
FPI win projection: GB, 73 percent. FPI anticipates Chicago having the eighth-best defense in the NFL. Given the price the Bears paid for Mack, surely they're hoping for better than that.
What to watch for in fantasy: Anthony Miller faces a largely untested, inexperienced secondary, making him an interesting Week 1 flier.

Overall out of the 11 ESPN analysts 10 picked the Packers and Mike Golic picked da Bears.

At CBS the eight analysts are split with Jason La Canfora, Will Brinson, Ryan Wilson and Dave Richard picking da Bears.

NFL.com’s four analysts pick the Packers.

There are only three players on the injured list this week for the Packers, James Crawford 3rd string inside linebacker, Josh Jones 2nd team strong safety and Oren Burks starting inside linebacker. Da Bears have no one of any importance.

So it comes down to which team is better and the home field advantage. The Packers get the advantage playing at Lambeau. The Packers offense gets the advantage because of Aaron Rodgers (what else is new). The Bears offense gets a slight advantage because of the running game. The Bears defense gets a big advantage because of Mack.

The key to the game is pass rush on both ends. The Packers have none and the secondary couldn’t cover a rock with a blanket. The Bears defense has tons, so it comes down to who wins a shootout. IF and that’s a big IF the Packers offensive line holds up long enough for Rodgers to find Davante Adams and Jimmy Graham then the Packers score.

So, I pick the Packers only because of the offense. I think playing the Bears the first week helps as far as Mack is concerned. However, instead of a blowout or something close I think it will be close. The Packers defense is worse that any of the local kiss ass media and that idiot Larry McCarren are telling you.

No comments:

Post a Comment