Thursday, November 26, 2015

Turkey and Bear Edition

It's a short week and I have come up short with my usual insights and musings. I have been busy with my evening job, but to be honest there hasn't been much new to talk about since the win over the Vikings.

Tonight the Packers host the Bears and all bets are off. Last week the running game, specifically Eddie Lacy, got untracked, but the passing game was firing on only four of its usual 10 cylinders. The defense got back on track with a fierce pass rush, but the secondary had its usual poor day in coverage.

Game On
So will it be Good Packers or Bad Packers when the Bears come to town? It seems to me there are several keys to a Packers win and none of them have anything to do with Jay Cutler being Jay Cutler, or maybe one.

Eddie Lacy seemed to break out of his slump against the Vikings and will face the No. 29 ranked run defense, but we'll see if he really remembered how to run or its was just one of those games.

The problem with Lacy was threefold. First, he was not running hard and against the Vikings he had his normal initial burst and his second burst and his power to run over and drag people. During his slump by the time he got to the hole it had closed. The line is still a problem with opening holes, but they are there for short time if the running back gets there quickly.

Second, he mainly ran between the tackles where he is at his best. For some unknown, stupid, brain dead, ignorant, stubborn reason both Mike McCarthy and Tom Clements runs Lacy and the other running backs for that matter, continue to run the off-tackle play making Lacy in particular run side to side where he can't use any of his assets. I have charted that play before and I can say without any fear of contradiction it has gained yardage maybe three times total over the years. CUT THAT DAMN PLAY FROM THE PLAY BOOK!!!!

Third Aaron Rodgers completed less than 50% of his passes (16-of-34) for fifth time in his career in a 113 regular season starts. The last time was at Buffalo in game 15 last season when he was worse completing 17-of-42. The previous times he was under .500 were in 2012 against the Cardinals (14-of-30) at Lambeau; in 2010 at the Jets (15-of-34); and in 2009 at Tampa Bay (17-of-35).

Randall Cobb continues to be in a slump. He caught only two of nine passes thrown his way and dropped two key third down passes in the second half. Rodgers continues to misfire on deep passes and being off target on crossing passes. His throwing shoulder injury (I think it occurred against the Chargers) and not Olivia Munn is the reason he's been in a slump.

What can I say about the Packer defense? The key to the Packers defense is pass rush. When it is on the Packers can hide their coverage and tackling issues. When it is not, as it was during the three-game losing streak, the Packer defense is a quarterback's dream.

Pressure is also how you beat Jay Cutler. I've read that he is handling pressure better during the resurgence, but we'll see. The Packers have to get in his face early and often. In the past he is a stone cold lock to throw an interception at the absolute wrong time (for the Bears). So the key is pressuring him.

Now to Jeff Janis. The much hated Jeff Janis. It took an injury to Micah Hyde, who is a better punt returner than a kickoff returner, for Janis to do what he always does. Produce. His first kickoff last week went for 70 yards.

The Packers are down to just four wide receivers (James Jones, Randall Cobb, Davante Adams and Janis). Ty Montgomery is still out with an ankle injury and Adams reinjured his ankle and is still not at 100%. Janis is the deep threat right now and Rodgers only targeted him twice. He missed him both times. Hopefully Rodgers' shoulder is getting better and his accuracy on the deep throws will continue to get better.

Another key is for the deep pass to be a part of the game plan, so the underneath crossing passes will be open. I also hope those one-yard passes in the flat will also be cut out of the game plan because they don't work either.


So now for my iffy prediction. I think with Bart Starr making an appearance at Lambeau Field for the Brett Favre number retirement ceremony along with a resurgent defense and a healthier Aaron Rodgers the Packers should win.

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