Next Man Up Once Again

The hallmark of the 2016-17 Green Bay Packers has been next man up all season. On defense the cornerback and inside linebacker positions has been hit very hard with injuries and on offense it has been running back and wide receiver. And once again injuries have raised its ugly head with the loss of Jordy Nelson for the Cowboys game for sure and the season possibly.

The loss of Nelson could hurt more than the loss of Randall Cobb for the last 2 games of the regular season did. When Cobb went down with an ankle injury undrafted rookie free agent Geronimo Allison stepped in and did a great job with 4 catches out of 7 thrown for 66 yards against the Vikings and 4 catches out of 6 thrown for 91 yards and a TD against the Lions.

Last week against the Giants despite Nelson going down early Allison was only thrown the ball twice catching 1 for 8 yards. It didn't seem to matter that Nelson was on the sidelines last week with Davante Adams and Randall Cobb not missing a beat catching 13 of 19 passes for 241 yards and 4 TDs.

In addition tight end Jared Cook continued to be productive catching 5 of 9 passes for 48 yards and running back Ty Montgomery doing good work out of the backfield catching 3 of 4 for 41 yards.

The key to last week was the inability of the defense to plan for Nelson being out and that won't be the case this week for the Cowboys. Last year with Nelson out the entire season Adams wasn't up to the task of being the No. 1 receiver after he had begun to show signs at the end of the 2014 season as being a legitimate go-to man.

The loss of Nelson could have a cascading effect. With Nelson back in the lineup Adams blossomed into a great or even the greatest No. 2 receiver in the league with 75 catches for 997 yards and 12 TDs complimenting Nelson's 97 catches, 1,257 yards and league-leading 14 TDs. Cobb had an up-and-down season with injuries finishing with 60 catches for 610 yards and 4 TDs, but last week had his breakout game with 5 catches for 116 yards and 3 TDs, including the Hail Rodgers at the end of the first half. Adams was the leading receiver with 8 catches for 125 yards and 1 TD.

But this week the Cowboys Adams moves back to the No. 1 spot and Allison should be the No. 2 with Cobb remaining in the slot. The key here is Allison stepping up and he has shown he can and Adams stepping up as the No. 1 sideline threat and he has shown he hasn't .However, he is 1 year old and maybe he is ready this time.

The next key is then Cook. He has come on late finishing with 30 catches for 377 yards and 1 TD. Rodgers likes him and will throw to him, so he has to be open and not drop the ball. Cook might be more of a key than either Allison or Adams.

Another key is Montgomery and Christine Michael running the ball taking the pressure off Allison and Adams. If the Packers have a running game the loss of Nelson might not be so catastrophic. Rodgers is playing as good as he ever has and only needs some help and time to carve the Cowboys defense up like a Thanksgiving turkey.

The offense has to be on because the defense was carved up by the Cowboys in Week 6. Ezekiel Elliott ran wild gaining 157 yards on 28 carries as Dallas racked up 191 yards rushing averaging 5.8 yards a carry against a defense that was the top run stopper at the time. Stopping Elliott is paramount to beating the Cowboys.

Dak Prescott had a very good completing 18 of 27 passes 247 yards with 3 TDs and 1 interception. The real key to the game is Dom Capers coming up with a way to stop Elliott forcing Prescott into mistakes on 2nd and 3rd and long.

Turnovers and short drives by the Cowboys are the path to victory. Despite losing 30-16 the first time around this is a very winnable game for the Packers, but only if the Rodgers and company score over 35 points and the defense forces the Cowboys into being a pass first team.

The first time around Capers went with a 3-man line of Mike Daniels, Letroy Guion and No. 1 pick Kenny Clark instead of the 2-man line of Daniels and Guion he normally goes with. The addition of an extra lineman didn't work

Clay Matthews was moved inside to replace the injured Jake Ryan and Blake Martinez with Julius Peppers and Nick Perry starting on the outside.

Capers has been going with a 5-man secondary this season and the same unit will be starting again today with Damarious Randall and LaDarius Gunter (or Gunner as Troy Aikman called him last week) at outside corner, Micah Hyde in the slot with Ha Ha Clinton-Dix and Morgan Burnett at safety.

Last week Capers was back to a 2-4-5 with Ryan and Martinez staring at inside linebacker with Peppers and Matthews on the outside. Burnett has been cheating up to help with the run defense and his play along with the lightweights Ryan and Martinez will be the key to stopping Elliott.

Matthews is looking more and more like his old self and if Prescott is forced to pass more often his pass rushing abilities along with Peppers and Perry could turn the game forcing him into interceptions at best or sacks at the least.

The first game was at Lambeau Field on October 16 with the conditions being 69 degrees and an 8 mph wind. The conditions in Dallas Sunday are going to be 46 degrees with no wind, but there is rain in the forecast. The rain could make the running game more of an issue on both sides of the ball.

The home teams have won every game in the playoffs. The Packers would have to buck that streak and I think they can if Rodgers and offense can continue to score 30 points or more and the defense can hold up its end.

Like I've said many times I hate it when the Packers are favored, so I am happy this week because most are picking the Cowboys. The Cowboys are favored by 4.5 points.

Seven of the ESPN 8 pick the Cowboys. However, 6 of the CBS Sports 8 pick the Packers. Five of the 7 and the OddsShark Computer at SB*Nation pick the Cowboys. FiveThirtyEight says the Cowboys have a 57% chance of winning.

Michael Safino from the Wall Street Journal says the Cowboys have a 64.4% chance of winning with these comments, "Aaron Rodgers versus a rookie QB seems like a total mismatch. But Dak Prescott has not played like a typical rookie QB, posting a passer rating of 104.9, the third best in the NFL. Rodgers is playing arguably the best anyone has ever played at the position since predicting (correctly) that the Packers, then 4-6, would run the table. He’s thrown four TD passes in three-straight games with zero picks despite having a wide receiver, Ty Montgomery, playing running back. Now he’ll be without ace wide receiver Jordy Nelson (broken ribs). But Rodgers shook off Nelson’s absence against the Giants last week in leading Green Bay to 38 points.

Dallas’s defense is nothing like New York’s. So Prescott and running back Ezekiel Elliott will need to be in top form. The Green Bay run defense must contain Elliott on first down, where he averages 5.7 yards on 1st and 10, gaining 1,037 of his 1,631 yards. On paper this seems like a dream matchup for Dallas wideout Dez Bryant given the Packers finished the regular season last in the NFC in yards allowed per pass attempt. But the Green Bay secondary shut down Odell Beckham (helped by three dropped passes). Bryant didn’t play in Dallas’s 30-14 Week 6 thumping of the Packers in Green Bay."

David White from the New York Times favors the Cowboys saying, "Jan. 7, 1996. That was the last time the Cowboys won a divisional-round playoff game, on the way to their last Super Bowl victory.

Dallas running back Ezekiel Elliott was about 5 months old. Dallas quarterback Dak Prescott was 2½. If the Cowboys finally get back to the N.F.C. championship game, it will because of what these two rookie Pro Bowl players can do.

Behind a decorated offensive line, Elliott became the fifth rookie to lead the N.F.L. in rushing (1,631 yards), and Prescott tied the rookie quarterback record with 13 victories. In the first meeting with the Packers, Elliott dictated the pace with 28 carries for 157 yards while facing a defense that ranked eighth against the run by season’s end. More Elliott is in order.

Green Bay has won seven straight games by way of quarterback Aaron Rodgers’s 22 touchdown throws, no interceptions and 120.7 passer rating. One complication for Rodgers: a rib injury sustained last weekend by his leading receiver, Jordy Nelson, the owner of 97 catches for 1,257 yards and 14 touchdowns.

Another problem for Green Bay: stopping the pass. Only one team, the Saints, allowed more yards in the air this season. With Elliott luring safeties into run-stop mode, Prescott is positioned for a substantial postseason debut.

Elliott Harrison from NFL.com predicts Cowboys 30-26 saying, "Amazingly enough, the all-time series between these two franchises is knotted at 17 wins apiece. Included in those 34 games are seven postseason affairs, of which the Cowboys are one up on the Packers. The Cowboys walked into Lambeau earlier this season, ran through the Packers' defense and flew home. Both teams are slightly different this time around: Green Bay is one of the hottest teams in football, while Dallas played that Week 6 game with a still-inexperienced Dak Prescott and no Dez Bryant.

What matters Sunday? Much of what counted in October. The Packers' run defense had better slow down Ezekiel Elliott and that Cowboys ground attack. Green Bay came into the first meeting allowing less than 3 yards per carry. Then Dallas outrushed the cheeseheads 191-78. Being that successful means the Cowboys control the clock, limiting Aaron Rodgers' touches. If the Packers go 0-fer -- like on their first four drives versus the Giants -- they won't get 8-10 more possessions to compensate. I like Rodgers against the Dallas secondary, but Jordy Nelson's probable absence sure doesn't help. (UPDATE: Mike McCarthy announced on Friday that Nelson will indeed miss Sunday's game.) Also, with Mo Claiborne back at corner and Dallas' pass rushers having rested legs -- hello David Irving, who was a force in the earlier meeting -- can Rodgers get enough time (in terms of protection and number of drives) to put up enough points? The guess here is no, but that's why they play the games."

This is a winnable game for the Packers if certain players step up and Dom Capers comes through. If not it could be a long afternoon and an end to the season. I'm not ready to for the season to end.