I took last week off because I was busy at work and I really
didn't know what to think about the Packers after dismantling the Lions in the
6h must-win in as many weeks. I felt the Lions were only downslide even though
the Packers had failed to win the same game last year at Lambeau Field against
the Vikings with the North title on the line.
That failure stuck in my mind heading into the game against
the Giants as did the other two times Eli Manning faced the Packers at Lambeau
in the playoffs and beat Brett Favre the first time and Aaron Rodgers the
second.
However, this is a different Packers team facing an older
and not better Eli with Aaron Rodgers at the top of his game and the Aaron
Rodgers who was mired in a slump when he faced the Vikings last year.
Rodgers was great at the end of the first half and the
second half when he was allowed to run the offense that got them there (quick
hitters), instead of the offense that gave them a 4-6 record (sitting back in
the pocket waiting for a receiver to get open and getting sacked).
The first 5 series were the latter. 1st: 3 and out from the
6 (Rodgers 1-for-2 and 7 yards); 2nd: 7 and out from the 23 (Rodgers 2-for-6
and 12 yards with an 11-yard sack); 3rd: 3 and out from the 45 (Rodgers 0-for-1
with a 15-yard sack); 4th: 4 and out from the 22 (Rodgers 1 for 3 and 13
yards); 5th: 4 and out from the NYG 38 (Rodgers 2-for-3 for 22 yards with a
0-yard sack and a 10-yard penalty for intentional grounding). For those of you
in Minneapolis , Detroit
and Chicago
that's 6-of-15 for 54 yards with 3 sacks for 26 yards and a 10-yard penalty and
0 points.
With Mike McCarthy's shackles off Rodgers finished the first
half 5-of-7 and 101 yards with 2 TDS. The second half Rodgers was 14-of-18 and 207
yards with 2 TDS and two other scoring drives. He was sacked 2 times for 5
yards.
After Rodgers (to borrow a phrase from the great icon
Britney Spears), "Oops, I did it again" completed his 3rd Hail Mary
since the "Miracle in Motor Town" to compel Troy Aikman right after
and other talking heads after the game to proclaim as Rodgers drove out of
sight, "Maybe, we should call it "Hail Rodgers"."
The second half started with the Packers going 3-and-out on
the first series with Rodgers going 1-for-1 for 6 yards and a 1-yard sack and
the ill-fated 4th-down fiasco when McCarthy went to his always bad play of
off-tackle left for -1 on 4th-and-1 instead of letting Aaron Ripkowski gain
that yard up the middle. (NOTE: Ripper gained 0 on the previous play going left
guard, but his forte is up the middle over center). During that drive Rodgers
went 1-for-1 and 5 yards. Rodgers and the Packers then finished the game by
scoring on the last 4 drives.
Packers advance to the Divisional Round against the Cowboys,
who are better than they have been for the past 10 years. There is no Tony Romo
to make the crucial mistake at the absolutely wrong time and there is a rookie
running back who seems to be unstoppable. That is not good.
However, again, the Cowboys are facing an Aaron Rodgers that
is in the zone and a Packers offense that seems to be able to come up with the
right player or right play at the right time, which is what happened Sunday
against the Giants when Randall Cobb came off the injury list to replace Jordy
Nelson. He tied a NFL record along with Sterling
Sharpe (1993) with 100-plus receiving yards and 3-plus receiving TDs in a
playoff game.
However, again and again, the loss of Nelson is very
troublesome. He and Rodgers were one of the reasons, if not the main reason,
the Packers won 6 in a row leading the offense that averaged 31.9 points a game
during the winning streak.
Also helping the offensive explosion has been resurgence of
the running back behind three players who weren't part of the equation at the
beginning of the season.
The season began with a slimmer faster Eddie Lacy and a
seasoned great No. 2 James Starks as the main running backs with second-year
fullback Aaron Ripkowski taking over for Lambeau Legend John Kuhn. Lacy lasted
five games before being shelved for the season. Starks crapped out early
averaging just 1.8 yards a carry before being hurt himself and also being
shelved.
"Ripper" was unused early just like Kuhn and every
other Packer fullback in the last quarter century. But as the position was decimated
has stepped up and became a credible rushing threat getting carries in 10 of
the last 13 games culminated in leading the team in rushing against the Lions
in the season finale with 61 yards on 9 carries with an average of 6.8 yards
and a long of 15 yards. He has shown an ability to move the pile and not get
knocked down until he has gained the last inch.
Also stepping up is converted wide receiver Ty Montgomery to
lead the Packers in rushing with 457 yards and a 5.9 average for the season,
including 162 yards on 16 carries and a 61-yard run, against the Bears. He's
the 2016 version of Samkon Gado, who came out of nowhere to lead the Packers in
rushing in 2005, Ted Thompson's first season as General Manager. Just a note
Gado was as popular as Kuhn to the Faithful, but was traded after the first
game the next season.
The Packers much maligned defense has been better of late.
Over the first 10 games the Packers gave up an average of 27.6 points a game,
including 38.25 during the 4-game losing streak, but during the 6-game winning
streak the Packers gave up just 18.7.
I'm not sure why the turnaround. I still see the middle of
the field open almost all the time on 2nd and 3rd and long. I still see just a
2-man line (Mike Daniels and Letroy Guion) that leads to huge runs up the
middle. I still see a lack of a consistent pass rush, especially from Clay
Matthews and Julius Peppers. I will say the last two games Matthews and Peppers
have made very opportune sacks or plays, but the consistency is still not there.
Another reason the middle is open to runs and passes is the
inside linebackers are lightweights. Joe Thomas, Jake Ryan and Blake Martinez are smallish and
get pushed around and/or blocked out. There are no backups to them, except for
Matthews. Oh, I forgot there is another inside linebacker named Jordan Tripp,
signed as a street free agent after being waived with an injury settlement by
the Seahawks. He has not played from scrimmage.
The backfield should be a liability. 2nd year undrafted free
agent LaDarius Gunter (or is it Gunner as Troy Aikman kept calling him Sunday?)
and 2nd year No. 1 draft pick Damarius Randall, who was benched a few games
back, have been beat on a regular basis this season. 2nd year No. 2 draft pick
Quinten Rollins has been good in the slot, when he is healthy, but couldn't
beat out Gunter to replace Sam Shields. The rest of the cornerbacks are all rookie
undrafted free agents Josh Hawkins and Herb Waters, who up to 15 games ago was
a wide receiver.
Micah Hyde is listed as a defensive back which means he is a
hybrid corner/slot/safety. He is also better in the slot, but has played
credible on the outside, but is not the answer out on the island.
The safeties have been solid for the most part. Free safety
Ha Ha Clinton-Dix had 5 interceptions and strong safety Morgan Burnett has had
his best season playing closer to the line of scrimmage than being exposed in
space.
However, for some reason either over-coaching by the
opposition or whatever the secondary hasn't been as much of a problem as it
should be.
It comes down to Defensive Coordinator Dom Capers. His love
of "Soft Coverage" in the second half specifically and the whole game
mostly is a major problem. He has lived off his reputation for way too long,
but the play of the defense has improved as the offense exploded.
Capers will have to be on his game this week against the
Cowboys, who ripped his defense apart in Week 5 giving up 30 points. Hopefully,
that game and recent struggles by the Cowboy offense will give him some insight
into how to slow them down.
But even if Capers defense craps out or not the Packers
offense will still need to score over 30 points to win. If Head Coach Mike
McCarthy doesn't over-coach and grounds the Packers offense himself and lets
the offense do what it has been doing best, 1-2-3 throw, and not sitting back
in the pocket waiting for a receiver to get open. That's what happened for the
1st five series against the Giants.
The Packers can't wait for a second half resurgence against
the Cowboys and another miracle play. Rodgers and company has to score first
and often to win the game. If Capers can come up with a plan and McCarthy stays
out of it the Packers have a good chance to advance.
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