A MIXED BAG OF NO. 1 PICKS

We're five days away from the 2015 NFL Draft. And even though it is being held in Chicago I am looking forward to it.

 

I have two reasons, or is it three, I'm not a fan of Chicago. First, Bears. Nuff said. Second, I live in Southern Illinois and those denizen's on the North Shore see Illinois as Chicago and the rest of the state. Us who live below the Eisenhower are considered bumpkins. And three, I live in a town with a lot of temporarily transplanted Chicago students and if I go to the local bar to watch the Packers games I have to suffer the slings and arrows - sometimes that is literally - of the Bears fans who love to harass Packer Backers. I think I can state without fear of contradiction (except for those delusional Bear fans who turn everything around - we all know people like that) the Bear fans are the ugliest and meanest in the world. I guess having to defend Jay Cutler can make you testy.

 

But I digress. I will now address General Manager Ted Thompson's track record with No. 1 draft picks. He's had 10 and it's a very mixed bag with high highs and low lows.

 

Thompson had two big hits and another who might turn out to be. His first big hit literally fell into his lap. Two-time MVP and Super Bowl MVP Aaron Rodgers was talked about as possibly being the No. 1 overall pick, but for some reason he was suddenly the red-headed step child of the first round.

 



Aaron Rodgers Super Bowl MVP

 

Future Hall of Famer (I have to LOL on that one) Alex Smith was chosen No. 1 overall by the San Francisco 49ers by first-year General Manager Scot McCloughan, first-year Head Coach Mike Nolan and first-year Offensive Coordinator Mike McCarthy. Isn't it ironic, don't you think?

I DECIDED TO ACCEPT THE MISSION TO GO ON A FOOL'S ERRAND

You will find a 100 different mock drafts with this or that scenario leading to the 30th pick in the first round. When it comes to the other 31 teams, or maybe the other 30, since the Raiders seem to defy logic a lot of time, most of them are very logical and end up picking someone at a need position.

 

But in the case of the Packers it's a fool's errand to predict what General Manager Ted Thompson is going to do, so the art of predicting is a very imprecise. But I will try anyway because...I'm the smartest guy in the room and...whoops, you heard that. I didn't realize I was thinking out loud. Be that as it may let's continue.

 

First let's look back to see what Thompson has done over the past 10 drafts. He has the reputation (through his own words prior to each draft) of drafting the best athlete available (BAA) regardless of position, but does he deserve it? Let's see.

 

Ted Thompson in the War Room

 

2005: 1-24 (QB Aaron Rodgers) - Needs: guard, safety, defensive end, strong side linebacker and running back. However, Brett Favre was nearing the end and the only quarterbacks on the roster were future Hall of Famers (tongue deep in both cheeks) J. T. Sullivan and Craig Nall, so when Rodgers had dropped from No. 1 overall to be available at 24 a future replacement for Favre became the biggest need. NEED.

DRAFT DAY TRADES

The Packers hold the No. 30th draft pick in the first round and my guess is General Manager Ted Thompson will probably trade down to acquire more draft picks than trade up. I have a reason for making that prediction.

 

When the draft opens Thompson has nine picks. The Packers have all seven of their own picks (No. 1-30; No. 2-62; No. 3-94; No. 4-129; No. 5-166; No. 6-205; No. 7-247) and two compensatory picks (No. 6-210 and No. 6-212), which can't be traded, for losing wide receiver James Jones to Oakland and center Evan Diertrick-Smith to Tampa Bay. Defensive end C. J. Wilson to Oakland and offensive tackle Marshall Newhouse to Cincinnati were also free agency losses, but they weren't deemed good enough for compensation).

 

Thompson has been very active on draft day making 27 trades on draft day during his previous 10 drafts. In his first draft he traded down in the third round (No. 89) for two No. 4's (115 and 126). He then traded down again trading the No. 4 (126) for two No. 5's (167 and 175), and a No. 7 (245). He traded down for the third time trading the No. 6 (175) for a No. 6 (195) and a No. 7 (246).

 

In the end he traded away a No. 3-89 (DT Atiyyah Ellison), a No. 4-126 (T Todd Heremans) and a No. 5-175 (DT Anttaj Hawthorne) for a No. 4-115 (S Marviel Underwood), a No. 5-167 (CB Mike Hawkins), a No. 6-195 (WR Craig Bragg), a No. 7-245 (LB Kurt Campbell) and a No. 7-246 (G Will Whitticker). To sum up three draft picks for five.

 

ANALYSIS: None of the five picks Thompson acquired amounted to anything (see Lombardi's Den Draft Redux) while Ellison played six years for seven teams; Heremans was a solid starter for the Eagles for 10 years before signing with the Colts recently; and Hawthorne played two seasons with the Raiders and ended his short career in the Arena League. RESULT: Minus.

 

DRAFT REDUX

The 2015 NFL Draft is a week away and it's time for me to take a look at how General Manager Ted Thompson has done over the course of his 10 previous drafts.

Aaron Rodgers not a happy camper when finally drafted

Thompson's first draft was in 2005 and his first pick was a huge hit. The Packers were coming off a 10-6-0 season where they lost in the Wild Card round to the hated Minnesota Vikings 31-17 under General Manager/Head Coach Mike Sherman. Thompson was hired when Sherman was stripped of his General Manager hat. The pick was the 24th and after an embarrassing drop - this individual was being talked about as possibly being the No. 1 overall - Thompson snagged quarterback Aaron Rodgers and the rest is history (after a three year apprenticeship behind Brett Favre).

His second pick was also a hit. Free safety Nick Collins was picked in the second round with the 51st pick and he became an immediate starter. Ironically, it took three years for him to play up to the level of the man he replaced (Darren Sharper), but he did and would have been as good or better, but a bruised spinal cord suffered in the second game of the 2011 season ended his promising career.

The rest of the 2005 draft was undistinguished at best. Outside linebacker Brady Poppinga (No. 4-125) and defensive end Mike Montgomery (No. 6-180) could be listed as serviceable. Poppinga started 44 games over six seasons before leaving in free agency and Montgomery was a solid backup for five seasons.

Tragically five of his 11 picks had their Packer careers or their after-Packers careers cut short by injury. The second No. 2 pick wide receiver Terrance Murphy was taken seven picks after Collins and his career ended in the third game of his rookie year with coincidentally a bruised spinal cord.

Strong safety Marviel Underwood (No. 4-115), guard Junius Coston (No. 5-143), cornerback Michael Hawkins (No. 5-167), cornerback Kurt Campbell (No. 7-245) and guard Will Whittacker (No. 7-246) also had their careers compromised by injury.

THE CURIOUS CASE OF GREG JENNINGS

Former Packers No. 1 receiver Greg Jennings is currently hitting the road trying to find a new team after the hated Minnesota Vikings (who take pride in signing Packer castoffs) cut him loose after just two years of a five-year $47.5 million contract he signed when the Packers elected to let him go after seven mostly stellar seasons.

Jennings is making the best of being rejected for the second time in three years and being fired does do something to your psyche as you search for reasons for being unwanted or worst gotten rid of. You go one of two ways. You could sink to the depths of despair and hide yourself in your room either drinking or drugging yourself to get rid of the pain or worse. Or you could lash out at the cretins you dumped you from being stupid (I know that's what cretin means, but it bears to be repeated) and not seeing how great you still are. Greg Jennings chose the latter when he left the Packers, but curiously he didn't when the Vikings dumped him for a faster, more firm young thing. I wonder why.

I was a big Greg Jennings fan. I thought he was great from the slot and looked forward to his 75-yard touchdown catches on his patented slant. However, his final season with the Packers that play never happened even before he was sidelined with various injuries. He seemed to have lost a step, but for whatever the reason he wasn't the dominate player he had been from 2007 to 2011 when he overtook Donald Driver as the No. 1 receiver.



Jennings on top

 His fall from dominance started at the end of 2011 when he suffered a knee injury and missed the final three games of the regular season. That was also the season that Jordy Nelson emerged as the go-to receiver for Aaron Rodgers. Jennings then began the 2012 season on the injured list with a groin injury that knocks him out of the games five through eight and then develops an abdomen injury that knocks him out of game nine followed by a hernia that kept out of game 11.

STARING MORTALITY IN THE FACE

Turdell Middleton

Friday another member of the Green Bay Packers family passed away. Terdell Middleton died five days short of his 60th birthday and it hit me hard since I'm about to turn 62.

 

Middleton was one of my favorite players. I had became a Packer Backer near the end of the Lombardi era and he was one of the few bright spots during the Wilderness Years after all of our heroes either had retired or were traded away by the time he arrived in 1977.

 

Middleton became only the fourth Packer to rush for a 1,000 yards in 1978 adding his name to the list of NFL Hall of Famers Tony Canadeo (1949) and Jim Taylor (1960-64) and Packer Hall of Famer John Brockington (1971-73). It had been five years of mediocrity before he gave us something to cheer about.

 

He never came close after that, but still he remained one of my favorite Packers just for being a bright spot on a team that had the first winning record (8-7-1) since the 1972 playoff team (10-4-0).

 

It was Bart Starr's fourth year as head coach and wide receiver James Lofton, tight end Paul Coffman, outside linebacker John Anderson and outside linebacker Mike "Mad Dog" Douglass (all future Packer Hall of Fame inductees with Lofton being a NFL Hall of Famer) were rookies with David Whitehurst the quarterback.

 

Do you realize that its been 48 years since the Vince Lombardi Era ended? For most of the Packer Backers out there that is their lifetime.

 

A FIND FROM AMONG THE BUSTS

Free Agency Wave three or two and a half or whatever they call the week after the second wave is still in half full swing until the draft (April 30) and General Manager Ted Thompson made his first big signing and I say that totally tongue in cheek.

 

All of a sudden the announcement went out that Thompson had signed a free agent and a defensive back a that after losing Tramon Williams and Davon House and I went totally giddy waiting to find out what veteran free agent he was able to pick off for a bargain basement price. THEN I read it was Kyle Sebetic and my giddiness turned to................disappointment.

 

Kyle (Sebby) Sebetic. That name strikes terror in the hearts of all who hear it. He was a stud cornerback at the University of Dayton and here's his official video and bio: