You will find a 100 different mock drafts with this or that scenario leading to the 30th pick in the first round. When it comes to the other 31 teams, or maybe the other 30, since the Raiders seem to defy logic a lot of time, most of them are very logical and end up picking someone at a need position.
But in the case of the Packers it's a fool's errand to predict what General Manager Ted Thompson is going to do, so the art of predicting is a very imprecise. But I will try anyway because...I'm the smartest guy in the room and...whoops, you heard that. I didn't realize I was thinking out loud. Be that as it may let's continue.
First let's look back to see what Thompson has done over the past 10 drafts. He has the reputation (through his own words prior to each draft) of drafting the best athlete available (BAA) regardless of position, but does he deserve it? Let's see.
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| Ted Thompson in the War Room |
2005: 1-24 (QB Aaron Rodgers) - Needs: guard, safety, defensive end, strong side linebacker and running back. However, Brett Favre was nearing the end and the only quarterbacks on the roster were future Hall of Famers (tongue deep in both cheeks) J. T. Sullivan and Craig Nall, so when Rodgers had dropped from No. 1 overall to be available at 24 a future replacement for Favre became the biggest need. NEED.
2006: 1-5 (OLB A. J. Hawk) - Needs: outside linebacker, wide receiver, guard, running back and safety. Hawk was the top linebacker in the country and he started his first season at outside linebacker. NEED.
2007: 1-16 (DT Justin Harrell) - Needs: running back, tight end, defensive tackle, wide receiver and strong safety. A pass rushing defensive tackle was a big need. NEED.
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| Justin Harrell |
2008: 1-30: (Traded down to 2-36) - Needs: cornerback, tight end, quarterback (see how much they thought of Rodgers after his third year), tackle, defensive end and safety. He went off the board and drafted wide receiver Jordy Nelson, despite having Donald Driver, Greg Jennings, James Jones and Koren Robinson as his top four. He might have thinking need with Driver aging, Jones dropping passes and Robinson a suspension waiting to happen, but who knows. BAA.
2009A: 1-9 (NT B. J. Raji) - Needs: outside linebacker, tackle, defensive end, strong safety. The Packers converted to a 3-4 in 2009 and Ryan Pickett was moved to nose tackle, so there was not a need for another one. Raji showed enough in 14 games and one start to take over at nose in 2010 and move Pickett to left defensive end. BAA.
2009B: 1-26 (OLB Clay Matthews) - Traded up to get Matthews. NEED.
2010: 1-23 (LT Bryan Bulaga) - Needs: tackle, outside linebacker, defensive end, running back, cornerback. Left tackle Chad Clifton was perceived at being near the end (injuries) and the only reserves were T. J. Lang (a better guard) and Allen Barbre (a bust). However, it was right tackle Mark Tauscher who was playing on his last leg. NEED.
2011: 1-32 (LT Derek Sherrod) - Needs: defensive end, left tackle, running back, outside linebacker, wide receiver, quarterback. Tauscher had retired and Clifton was coming off a good year, but he wouldn't make it through the season. Bulaga was the right tackle, Lang took over at left guard and Marshall Newhouse eventually would take over for Clifton. NEED.
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| Derek Sherrod |
2012: 1-28 (DE Nick Perry) - Needs: defensive end, cornerback, outside linebacker, safety, running back, inside linebacker. Perry was drafted as a pass rusher, but not as a defensive end, but as an outside linebacker. NEED.
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| Nick Perry |
2013: 1-26 (DE Datone Jones) - Needs: tackle, defensive end, nose tackle, running back, safety, tight end. The defensive line continued to be a problem and pass rushing a bigger problem. NEED.
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| Datone Jones |
2014: 1-21 (S Ha Ha Clinton-Dix) - Needs: safety, inside linebacker, tight end, wide receiver, defensive end. This draft was all about need. Got the safety (Clinton-Dix), tight end (Richard Rodgers) and wide receiver (Davante Adams). NEED.
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| Ha Ha Clinton-Dix |
So it seems Thompson is a major bull-shitter and his reputation for being a Best Athlete Available guy is a self perpetuated myth: He's had 10 first round picks (trading down once in 2008 and trading up to get an extra one in 2009) and all but for Raji in 2009 (and Nelson as his top pick in the second round in 2008) he went for a need every time. I think he will do that again.
I don't think Thompson thinks there is such a glaring hole in the roster or a super prospect he wants to force him to trade up to get into the top 15, so it looks like we're drafting at 30 or later.
On NFL.com its top four NFL analysts predict Thompson will take a cornerback. I wonder where they got the idea the Packers need a cornerback.
Daniel Jeremiah has the Packers taking the fourth cornerback drafted - Marcus Peters from Washington - after Michigan State's Trae Waynes was picked 14th by the Dolphins, Connecticut's Byron Jones 22nd by the Steelers and Wake Forest's Kevin Johnson 27th by the Cowboys.
Charles Davis, Charley Casserly and Lance Zierlein have the Packers taking Jalen Collins from LSU. Davis has Waynes going 11th to the Vikings, Peters going to the Steelers and Johnson to the Cowboys. Casserly has Waynes to the Vikings, Peters going 16th to the Texans, Johnson to the Steelers and Jones to the Cowboys. Zierlein has Waynes going 18th to the Chiefs, Peters to the Steelers and Johnson going 24th to the Cardinals.
The Second Teamers have Collins and outside linebacker Randy Gregory being picked by the Packers. Brian Baldinger picked Collins and Bucky Brooks chose Gregory.
CBSSports.com has Collins and a two defensive tackles being picked. Pete Prisco and Will Brinson pick Collins while Rob Rang selects Jordan Phillips from Oklahoma and Dane Brugler chose Malcom Brown from Texas.
WalterFootball.com has their Readers' Consensus Mock Draft and the masses chose outside/inside linebacker Eric Kendricks from UCLA followed by Johnson and outside/inside linebacker Benardrick McKinney from Mississippi Sate.
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| Eric Kendricks |
So it seems everyone has been drinking the Kool-Aid. The Packers lose Tramon Williams and Davon House, so they need a cornerback. The Packers let go A. J. Hawk, Brad Jones and Jamari Lattimore, so they need an inside linebacker. B. J. Raji is coming off an injury and Letroy Guion some legal trouble, so they need a defensive tackle. Seems logical doesn't it Mr. Spock.
So we need to look at who Thompson had in for a look-see or were rumored to be interested in to get a better idea of what positions he is looking at.
QB Bryce Petty, Baylor
QB Ryan Williams, Miami
FB Alan Ripkowski, Oklahoma
WR R. J. Harris , New Hampshire
WR Ricky Collins, Texas A&M Commerce
WR Jordan Leslie, BYU
WR Adrian Coxson, Stony Brook
TE Jesse James, Penn St.
TE Matt LaCosse, Illinois
OT Blaine Clausell, Mississippi State
DT Darius Kilgo, Maryland
DL Rodney Gunter, Delaware State
ILB Tony Steward, Clemson
CB Tray Walker, Texas Southern
First, let's throw out the names of these guys since none of them are first round material. But what is significant is their positions.
On offense Thompson is looking at quarterbacks (Matt Flynn is still unsigned and Scott Tolzien is the only one left); a fullback (don't see that one with John Kuhn re-signed); wide receiver (now that's a scratcher because of Jordy Nelson, Randall Cobb, Davante Adams, Jeff Janis, Jared Abbrederis and Myles White); tight end (I don't see a need here either because of Richard Rodgers and Andrew Quarless, but maybe they need a third one who doesn't play); offensive tackle (I always see a need for another tackle, but that is the one position Thompson short-sheets on the final 53. He moves one of the guards when the need arrives. But with Don Barclay back I don't see a need here either); On defense he is looking at defensive tackles, inside linebackers and cornerbacks. So that's where everyone got the idea.
Let's look at the cornerback situation. Sam Shields is the returning starter with Casey Hayward the logical replacement for Tramon Williams. However, if he proves to be a bust (after such a promising start with six interceptions his rookie season) then last year's No. 7 pick Demetri Goodson is the next man up. He didn't play at all last year. Finally there is Micah Hyde. I think his best position is the slot corner - Charles Woodson's old position - because I think he is not fast enough to be a good outside corner.
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| Casey Hayward |
The loss of both Williams and House hurt. Keeping House and letting the older Williams go would have been the most logical move or even the other way around, but letting both go I think was and will be a huge mistake. You have to hope Hayward is ready to take over, because even if Thompson does draft a cornerback he will only be the third or fourth best and those guys aren't usually ready to start as a rookie.
Defensive tackle is not a first-round need in my estimation. Once again the real talent will be at the top of the draft and not at 30 or later. I think Raji and Guion will be a very good tandem. I liked Josh Boyd as a rookie and hope he only had a sophomore slump. I also liked Mike Pennel in the pre-season last year, but he disappeared during the season. He could be a good one. Kyri Thornton was drafted in the third round (85), but went on injured reserve for a hamstring injury, so he still is in the mix.
Now we get to inside linebacker. The only returning player is Sam Barrington, who only became a starter the second half of the season. He did well and should improve even more. The other inside linebackers are suspect. Carl Bradford was drafted in the fourth round, but was inactive for all 16 games. He is supposedly a good pass rusher, but was moved inside when he couldn't handle the outside, so he is very suspect. The other inside backers are undrafted free agents Joe Thomas and possibly Josh Francis.
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| Sam Barrington |
The wild card is where Clay Matthews ends up. I'm on record wanting to keep him inside, but I think the pressure is to move him back outside. I love what he did and how the defense responded with him in the middle, but I feel like I'm a lonely voice in the wilderness keeping him there. No matter how it goes with Matthews this is the other position that needs replenishing.
While outside linebacker is one of the hot positions this draft inside linebacker is not so there is a good chance either the top one or the second one will still be on the board. None of the NFL.com or the CBSSports.com analysts has an inside linebacker going before No. 30.
In Jeremiah's list of the top 50 prospects he has Denzel Perryman from Miami listed as the top inside linebacker at 34 followed by Kendricks at 46. Mike Maylock lists Paul Dawson from TCU the top inside linebacker followed by Kendricks, Stephone Anthony from Clemson, Perryman and McKinney.
So it looks like it could come down to cornerbacks Jalen Collins or Marcus Peters or the top inside linebacker.
Peters is bigger (6-0, 197) than the Packers currently have (5-11, 190-195). He is said to be the most gifted cornerback in the class being listed as being top 15 talent, but he has character issues. He was dismissed from Washington after clashes with the coaching staff. That being put aside (and usually Thompson pays attention to that) one other red flag jumped out at me. His evaluation said he is grabby down field and that reminds me of Ahmad Carroll and that comparison is not good.
Collins is also bigger (6-1, 203). He has very good downfield long speed and above average athleticism. However, he only became a starter his senior year and has only 10 starts under his belt. He is limited in finding the ball and keeping up with smaller and faster receivers. No starting until his senior year didn't hurt Matthews, but linebacker is a much different deal than outside corner.
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| Jalen Collins |
Dawson (6-3, 235) played outside linebacker for TCU, but everyone has him moving inside. He is a flexible, agile athlete with good lower-body build, outstanding instincts and a nose for the ball. On the negative side he's not a wrap-up tackler (the Packers have a bunch of those) and has personality problems (not being committed and generally not being liked in the locker room).
Kendricks (6-0, 232) played inside linebacker for UCLA. He is instinctive, aggressive and an explosive hitter. His negatives are he's not very powerful and had lingering shoulder and ankle injuries last year causing him to miss two games.
Perryman (5-11, 236) played inside linebacker for Miami. He's instinctive and tough, a good tackler and has good leverage to shed blocks. He is compared to London Fletcher and that says a lot. His only negative is being vulnerable in play-action.
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| Denzel Perryman |
Anthony (6-3, 243) played inside linebacker for Clemson. His strengths are good speed, consistent tackler, speed to go side to side and cover tight ends and could be an effective blitzer. His negatives are poor leverage taking on blocks, a tendency to side-step blocks and leave running lanes open.
McKinney (6-4, 246) played outside linebacker at Mississippi State. His strengths are being a true take-on linebacker who steps into the hole, fires into the running back finishing with a wrap-up tackle. His negatives are his feet. He gets tangled up and looks stiff and gives too much cushion in coverage.
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| Benardrick McKinney |
So here comes my prediction. If Peters drops Thompson takes him at No. 30 red flags withstanding. If he doesn't and Collins is still there then he trades down (hopefully no less than six spots) and tries to draft him there or takes either Kendricks, Perryman or McKinney.
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| Marcus Peters |
According to who we get I would then draft the other (a corner or an inside linebacker) with the next pick. After that I would go after a running back, a defensive linemen, a tight end, another corner, an offensive lineman, another running back, another defensive lineman and finally a quarterback. That's my prediction for his 10 picks if he trades out of the first round.
If the Packers get Peters at No. 30 I would hope one of the inside linebackers is available at the end of the second round. After that it's running back, a defensive linemen, a tight end, another corner, an offensive lineman, another running back and a quarterback.
So it seems I'm drinking the Kool-Aid, too. In my case raspberry. I could be totally wrong and he goes off the board and picks a wide receiver or he stays with the need position and picks a name out of left field.
Thompson is the most predictable unpredictable General Manager in the game. No matter what he says ("don't believe your lying eyes believe what I'm telling you") we have found he goes with a need the majority of the time (predictable), but most of the time picks a different person than conventional wisdom is touting (unpredictable).
So like I said at the start this is a fool's errand and I am the lead fool, but not for predicting a cornerback or inside linebacker, but for putting a name to his first pick. That's my story and I'm sticking to it.
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