DRAFT REDUX

The 2015 NFL Draft is a week away and it's time for me to take a look at how General Manager Ted Thompson has done over the course of his 10 previous drafts.

Aaron Rodgers not a happy camper when finally drafted

Thompson's first draft was in 2005 and his first pick was a huge hit. The Packers were coming off a 10-6-0 season where they lost in the Wild Card round to the hated Minnesota Vikings 31-17 under General Manager/Head Coach Mike Sherman. Thompson was hired when Sherman was stripped of his General Manager hat. The pick was the 24th and after an embarrassing drop - this individual was being talked about as possibly being the No. 1 overall - Thompson snagged quarterback Aaron Rodgers and the rest is history (after a three year apprenticeship behind Brett Favre).

His second pick was also a hit. Free safety Nick Collins was picked in the second round with the 51st pick and he became an immediate starter. Ironically, it took three years for him to play up to the level of the man he replaced (Darren Sharper), but he did and would have been as good or better, but a bruised spinal cord suffered in the second game of the 2011 season ended his promising career.

The rest of the 2005 draft was undistinguished at best. Outside linebacker Brady Poppinga (No. 4-125) and defensive end Mike Montgomery (No. 6-180) could be listed as serviceable. Poppinga started 44 games over six seasons before leaving in free agency and Montgomery was a solid backup for five seasons.

Tragically five of his 11 picks had their Packer careers or their after-Packers careers cut short by injury. The second No. 2 pick wide receiver Terrance Murphy was taken seven picks after Collins and his career ended in the third game of his rookie year with coincidentally a bruised spinal cord.

Strong safety Marviel Underwood (No. 4-115), guard Junius Coston (No. 5-143), cornerback Michael Hawkins (No. 5-167), cornerback Kurt Campbell (No. 7-245) and guard Will Whittacker (No. 7-246) also had their careers compromised by injury.

Underwood had a very promising rookie season, but a knee injury wiped out his 2006 season and a hamstring injury led to his release at the beginning of the 2007 season. He holds the distinction of being one of few players during the modern era to have worn two different numbers in the same season. He started the 2007 season wearing No. 25, but when he was re-signed later in the season for two games he was assigned No. 43 because Ryan Grant was wearing No. 25. He lasted only two games during which he was inactive and then released. He was picked up by the Broncos and was inactive for four games before being waived. He signed and waived by the Raiders in 2008 and ended his career with the California Redwoods of the UFL in 2009 and ended that stint being put on Injured Reserve for groin and knee injuries.

Coston played three games his first two seasons before earning a starting job at right guard in 2007, but his season ended on Injured Reserve for a knee injury and started the 2008 season on Injured Reserve for a calf injury before ending the season on Injured Reserve for a knee injury before the start of the season. After being waived injured he bounced to the Raiders (1 game-inactive) and Lions (1 game-inactive). In 2010 he signed with the Omaha Knighthawks of the UFL, but never played a game. In 2011 he signed with the Calgary Stampeders of the CFL and was traded to the Edmonton Eskimos. He started three games at left tackle before going on Injured Reserve with a knee injury.

Hawkins was a highly talented cornerback, who had already signed with the Dallas Desperadoes of the Arena Football League before he was drafted by the Packers. He played five games in 2004 and five games in 2005. Both years he was placed on Injured Reserve. Despite a groin injury he played in 11 games (starting one) at cornerback his rookie season, but was waived-injured at the beginning of the 2006 season with a knee injury. He signed with the Browns and played in seven games before being waived. He signed with the Vikings and played one game. He was waived-injured (bruised ribs) at the beginning of the 2007 season. He returned to the Desperadoes in 2008, but left after two days. In 2009 he signed a reserve/futures contract with the Cowboys, but suffered a bruised kneecap and was waived without playing in a game. He was signed and waived by Bucs and the Raiders, who released him with a injury settlement ending his career.

Campbell was moved to outside linebacker, but his first two seasons started on Injured Reserve for a knee injury in 2005 and for a hamstring in 2006. He was released and signed and released by the Raiders in 2007. The Titans signed him to their practice squad, but waived him injured (ribs) before the start of the 2008 season. He signed with the Calgary Stampeders in 2009, but was released without appearing in a game.

Whittacker could be considered both an injury casualty and a bust. He became an immediate starter by default at right guard when Marco Rivera was allowed to leave in free agency. He started 14 games and missed only one with a concussion. He began the 2006 season with a move to left tackle in training camp, but was moved back to right guard and after suffering a hamstring injury was eventually waived before the season. He spent two games-inactive for the Dolphins in 2006 before being released. In 2007 he signed with Redskins and was competing at left guard, but after suffering a high ankle sprain he was released. However, I will officially put him in the bust category for being a soft player despite being a big man.

The lone out-right bust was wide receiver Craig Bragg (No. 5-195). He was waived during the pre-season and was re-signed to the practice squad before being released again. The Jets signed him to their practice squad, but was released. He ended his rookie season on the Bears practice squad. He spent the summer with NFL-Europe Amsterdam Admirals where he played 10 games catching 21 passes for 301 yards and one TD. He also returned six punts for a 4.3 average. He returned to the Bears for the 2006 training camp, but was released.

Over the past 10 years Thompson has drafted 96 players. He has drafted what I consider 23 outstanding starters for the Packers for a 24% winning percentage.

2005: QB Aaron Rodgers (#1-24), FS Nick Collins (#2-51)
2006: LB A. J. Hawk (#1-5), WR Greg Jennings (#2-52)
2007: WR James Jones (#3-78), PK Mason Crosby (#6-194)
2008: WR Jordy Nelson (#2-36), TE Jermichael Finley (#3-91), G Josh Sitton (#4-135)
2009: NT B. J. Raji (#1-9), LB Clay Matthews (#1-26) and G T. J. Lang (#4-109)
2010: T Brian Bulaga (#1-23), SS Morgan Burnett (#3-71)
2011: WR Randall Cobb (#2-64)
2012: DE Mike Daniels (#4-132)
2013: RB Eddie Lacey (#2-61), LT David Bakhtiari (#4-109), S/CB Micah Hyde (#5-159), ILB Sam Barrington (#7-232)
2014: FS Ha-Ha Clinton-Dix (#1-21), WR Davante Adams (#2-53), C Corey Linsley (#5-161)

[While I don't consider A. J. Hawk a star by any stretch of my imagination (see my Feb. 28th post) leaving the Packers as the all-time leading tackler qualifies him as such. I included B. J. Raji, which a lot of you consider a bust, but I consider his Packers' career a classic case of being misused and playing out of position.]

Thompson has drafted 28 what I call middle or serviceable players for a 29.2% winning percentage or when you combine the outstanding and serviceable players (whether as a Packer or with other teams) he was an overall 53.1% winning percentage, which is better than most I would think. I saw a post By Rob Reischel (Special to Packer Plus) stating how outstanding Thompson has been drafting players and while I don't gush like he does I have to admit he's done very well. His middle of the road players were.

2005: OLB Brady Poppinga (#4-125), DE Mike Montgomery (#6-180)
2006: LG Daryn Colledge (#2-47), RG/C Jason Spitz (#3-75), CB/KR Will Blackmon (#4-115), DE/DT Johnny Jolly (#6-183), S Tyrone Culver (#6-185), DE Dave Tollefson (#7-253)
2007: RB Brandon Jackson (#2-63), S Aaron Rouse (#3-89), FB/TE/LB Korey Hall (#6-191), TE Clark Harris (#7-243)
2008: CB Pat Lee (#2-60), T Breno Giacomini (#5-150), QB Matt Flynn (#7-209)
2009: DE Jarius Wynn (#6-182), LB Brad Jones (#7-218)
2010: DE MIke Neal (#2-56), TE Andrew Quarless (#5-154), RB James Starks (#6-193), DE C. J. Wilson )#7-230)
2011: CB Davon House (#4-131), DE Lawrence Guy (#7-233)
2012: OLB/DE Nick Perry (#1-28), CB Casey Hayward (#2-62)
2013: DE Datone Jones (#1-26), WR Charles Johnson (#7-216)
2014: TE Richard Rodgers (#3-98)
 

Richard Rodgers

While Toffefson didn't play a game for the Packers he had a solid career with Giants as a reserve for five seasons and recently signed a one-day contract to retire as a Giant.

Rouse started 9 games for the Packers over three seasons and had a knack for the ball with four interceptions and one for a TD. He started 8 games for the Giants in 2009 with one interception. He was signed and waived by the Cardinals in 2010 and ended his career in the UFL with the Sacramento Mountain Lions (2010) and Omaha Nighthawks (2010) and with the Virginia Destroyers in 2011 and 2012. In the 2011 championship game he intercepted three passes and was named the MVP.



Clark Harris with the Bengals

I would wager most of you don't remember tight end Clark Harris. He was waived, re-signed to the practice squad and waived again his rookie season. He was signed to the Lions practice squad in 2007 and waived from the practice squad in 2008. The Texans bounced him back and forth in 2008 from practice squad to being waived, but at the end of the season he was re-signed as a long snapper and played four games. He was released by the Texans in 2009 and landed with the Bengals where he has been their long snapper ever since.

I put Lawrence Guy here for many reasons. He didn't play a down for the Packers, but he still in the league and has been a good reserve for the Colts (2012-2013), Chargers (2013-2014) and with the Ravens (2014-2015).

Thompson has drafted 23 players, who are what I think are busts, and that's a losing percentage of 24.0%. In the grander scheme of things missing on less than 1/4 of your picks is pretty good.

2005: WR/PR Craig Bragg (#6-195), RG Will Whittacker (#7-246)
2006: PR/WR Cory Rodgers (#4-104), QB Ingle Martin (#5-148), G Tony Moll (#5-165)
2007: RT Allen Barbre (#4-119), WR David Clowney (#5-157), RB DeShawn Wynn (#7-228)
2008: QB Brian Brohm (#2-55), WR Brett Swain (#7-217)
2009: FB Quinn Johnson (#5-145), LT Jamon Meredith (#5-162), S Brandon Underwood (#6-187)
2010: LT Marshall Newhouse (#5-169)
2011: RB Alex Green (#3-96), TE D. J. Williams (#5-141), G Caleb Schlauderaff (#6-179), OLB Ricky Elmore (#6-197), TE Ryan Taylor (#7-118)
2012: SS Jerron McMillian (#4-133), ILB Terrell Manning (#5-163), QB B. J. Coleman (#7-243)
2013: DE Josh Boyd (#5-167)



Marshall Newhouse

Some of the busts were quite unique individuals. Cory Rodgers was one of those blessed with athletic talent. Before training camp he was arrested in a bar fight after refusing to sign autographs and buy a round for the entire bar (50-60 people) a fight broke out with bottles and pool cues and he ended up firing two shots. He ended up pleading to unlawful possession of a firearm, but the reason he was cut was he couldn't catch a punt. He signed with the 49ers, but was cut three weeks later and never caught on again. He ended up in the CFL with the British Columbia Lions for two years and the Toronto Argonauts for one. He wasn't bad, but was never good (47 catches for 592 yards and 3TDs; 14 punt returns for 86 yards and 0TDs. 14 kickoff returns for 17.6 average).

DeShawn Wynn was very immature hiding in a closet and taking a dump in his girlfriend's clothes hamper in a jealous rage. No Lawrence Phillips, but still not a great way to get her back.

Thompson has been unluckier than most when it comes to injuries. He has lost 17 of his draft picks because of injury for an unlucky percentage of 17.7%.

2005: FS Nick Collins (#2-51), WR Terrence Murphy (#2-58), SS Marviel Underwood (#4-115), C Junius Coston (#5-143), CB Mike Hawkins (#5-167), LB Kurt Campbell (#7-245)
2006: MLB Abdul Hodge (#3-67)
2007: DE Justin Harrell (#1-16), ILB Desmond Bishop (#6-193)
2008: DE Jeremy Thompson (#4-102)
2009: None
2010: None
2011: RT Derek Sherrod (#1-32), ILB D. J. Smith (#6-186)
2012: DE Jerel Worthy (#2-51), T Andrew Datko (#7-241)
2013: RB Jonathan Franklin (#4-125), OLB Nate Palmer (#6-193), WR Kevin Dorsey (#7-224)

Bishop was on the way to be an outstanding inside linebacker for the Packers. However, his career was sidelined with a severe torn hamstring during the pre-season of the 2012 season. He was waived after missing the 2012 season and lasted only four games with the Vikings before being put on injured reserve with a knee injury. He was signed, waived, re-signed and waived again with the Cardinals in 2014 before landing with the 49ers as a reserve left inside linebacker for two games and has been re-signed for 2015.

Harrell was a No. 1 draft pick that never should have been drafted. He was injured when he was drafted (left biceps) and never got healthy. This was Thompson's worse pick ever.

Franklin had just rushed for a 100 yards against the Bengals when he got hurt and was advised to never play again. Dorsey had a foot injury and is now getting a second chance with the Patriots.



Corey Linsley

We now come to those players I've given an incomplete grade on. Thompson has one from the 2013 draft and five from last year. J. C. Tretter (2013: #4-122) was slated to be the starting center last season after Evan Dietrick-Smith left, but after being injured with an ankle his rookie season he suffered a knee injury in training camp and lost his job permanently to rookie Corey Linsley. He has been moved to right tackle to compete for a backup job.



Demetri Goodson

DT Kyri Thornton (#3-85) was place on injured reserve with a hamstring injury and WR Jared Abbrederis (#5-176) was on injured reserve with a knee injury. LB Carl Bradford (#4-121) was inactive for all 16 games, CB Demetri Goodson (#6-197) was active for six games and made six tackles on special teams and WR Jeff Janis (#7-236) was active for three games and caught 2 passes for 16 yards.

To sum up. Out of 96 draft choices Thompson hit on 23, including six No. 1 picks (Rodgers, Hawk, Raji, Matthews, Bulaga, Clinton-Dix). He added another 28 good players, including two No. 1 picks (Perry and Jones). That is a 53.1% winning percentage.

On the down side he had 24 busts with no No. 1 picks, but a No. 2 (Brohm) and a No. 3 (Green). His bust percentage was 24%. He had 17 players that ended up being injured and that included two No. 1's (Harrell and Sherrod) and three No. 2's (Collins, Murphy and Worthy). That percentage was 17.7%.

Let's check Thompson's record for No. 1 draft picks. He hit on six of 10 (Rodgers, Hawk, Raji, Matthews, Bulaga and Clinton-Dix. The jury is still out on two (Perry and Jones) and two were injury casualties (Harrell and Sherrod). So with a 60% winning percentage and two busts because of injuries I would have to give Thompson a big Thumbs Up on draft day.



Charles Johnson

Now let's address the legend of his No. 7 picks being, especially good. That turns out to be a myth. He has drafted 15 players in the seventh round. There were no outstanding players (unless 2013 No. 7 Charles Johnson turns into one with the Vikings or last year's No. 7 Jeff Janis develops).

There were six I considered good, however all but one (M. Flynn) got better after leaving Green Bay with only two (Harris with the Bengals and Johnson with the Vikings) starters with Harris on special teams only. There were five out-right busts (Whittacker, J. Wynn, Swain, Taylor and Coleman) and three that got hurt (Campbell, Datko and Dorsey) with one incomplete (Janis).

The seventh round percentages are: 1. Outstanding: 0.0%. 2a. Good starters: 13.4%. 2b. Good reserves: 26.7%. 3. Busts: 33.3%. 4. Hurt: 20%. 5. Incomplete: .07%. So let's put that seventh round myth to rest once and for all