Draft Day One: The Long and the Short of It

Overview:

Green Bay Packers new General Manager Dynamic Duo (Brian Gutekundst and Ted Thompson) pulled off a great trade Thursday night trading away the No. 14 pick in the first round along with the 76th pick in the 3rd round and the 186th pick in the 6th round to get the 18th pick in the first round as well as the 147th pick in the 5th round, the 248th pick in the 7th round and, and this is great part, a 1-32 pick in next year’s draft.

The trade was also great because the Packers ended up getting the player they wanted and the player almost all the pundits said the Packers would draft at 14 and all it cost was losing a 3rd round pick altogether dropping 71 picks with the pickup of the 147th pick in the 5th round and losing a 6th round pick dropping 62 picks with the pickup of the 248th pick in the 7th round.

I think the 1st trade with the Saints No. 1-14 for No. 1-27, No. 5-147 and 2019 No. 1 was a Ted Thompson telling “Gute” he could have extra picks and a 27th pick would be cheaper than the 14th. The 2nd trade with the Seahawks giving up the 27th pick, a #3-76 and a #6-186 for the 18th pick and a 7-248 was probably made when Ted fell asleep or went to the bathroom because getting back into the Top 20 would have given Ted a stroke (maybe “Gute” should have waited until he was back).

All in all, at least at this point, with the Packers getting their projected cornerback Jaire Alexander while giving up edge rusher Marcus Davenport (Saints) at 14 and running back Rashaad Penny (Seahawks) at 27, the trade was an unqualified success.

Davenport is 6-6, 264 and played defensive end for Texas-Arlington. In the pre-draft analysis he was given a 5.99 prospect grade (meaning a chance to become starter) to make in the NFL making him the 28th rank overall and 2nd defensive end behind Bradley Chubb (7.32) who was drafted No. 5 by the Broncos. Penny (5.85 also chance to become starter) was the 5th ranked running back and is seen as a reach at 27 being the 2nd running back taken behind Saquon Barkley (7.45) while the No. 4th (5.91) went 4 picks later and the No. 2 (6.14) and No. 3 (6.01) still on the board heading into the 2nd round.

The Long:

Jaire Alexander out of Louisville was the 2nd ranked cornerback in the draft with a 6.03 prospect grade (should become instant starter) behind Denzel Ward (6.31) who went to the Browns with the 4th pick. Overall he was ranked 24th, as far as prospect grade is concerned, so technically he was drafted 6 picks too high, but that is within the margin of error I think.

Bio: While Alexander was just a three-star prospect coming out of North Carolina, and ranked only in the top 70 cornerbacks in the country, Louisville saw a future starter in his speed, ball skills, and physical play on the outside. He proved them correct in 2016, intercepting five passes and breaking up nine others in 13 starts to garner second-team All-ACC honors. Alexander played in 12 games, with one start on defense (19 tackles, one interception) in his true freshman season. He's also made a name for himself as a punt returner in his first two seasons (29 returns for 223 yards in 2015, 19 returns for 195 yards in 2016), including a 69-yard return for a touchdown against ACC rival Florida State in 2016.

NFL Network Analyst: Twitchy and quick, Alexander is an instinctive cornerback with the ability to anticipate routes and the quickness to close on throws and make plays on the ball. He has the potential to become a second cornerback, but teams may view him as a full time nickel cornerback who is able to avoid the rigors of excessive run support.

An AFL defensive backs coach: "It looked like he kind of cruised by sometimes this year like he was trying not to get hurt. You can see that talent, man. He can stay on you all over the field and he was one of the smoothest ones I saw at the Combine."

Strengths:

Athletic and tough

Came back for last three games of the season despite missing multiple games due to sprained knee and a broken hand

Eyes stay on quarterback when he's able

Aware and instinctive

Spots traffic from zone and squeezes passing lanes

Carries playmaking traits

Quick response time when quarterback begins release

Smooth mover with plus acceleration to chase

Feet are light and sudden

Crowds and mirror receiver's release without panicking

Stays connected to routes

Pattern reader capable of sudden stops to mirror comeback routes

Aggressive attacking catch point

Climbs on top of receivers and rips arms through potential catches

Has decent recovery burst on the deep ball

Communicative with teammates

The Short:

Bio: Alexander missed about half of the 2017 season with leg and hand injuries, but managed to start six of seven games played on the year (19 tackles, one interception, four pass breakups) and was named honorable mention All-ACC.

NFL Network Analyst: “His tape in 2017 was uneven due to issues with a sprained knee which could raise concerns over his durability considering his slender build.”

Weaknesses:

Gangly frame unlikely to carry much more good weight

Injuries and missed time make 2017 tape tricky to evaluate

Avoided excess contact with blockers and appeared to lack his typical brand of aggressiveness

Needs to play with better knee bend from press

Read routes and created opportunities to attack throws but defaulted to the safe play

Can get grabby in man coverage

Allows base widen and loses balance during transitions from time to time

Gave up too many redzone touchdowns in 2016

Inconsistent getting head around in time to find the football

Inconsistent finisher as tackler and may struggle to get off of NFL blocks

The Really Short – A Historical Perspective:

Technically the Packers like their cornerbacks to be at least 5-10 1/2 and Jaire Alexander is 5-10, so he is within the margin of error. However, the past several years the Packers have preferred their corners to be 6-0 or taller considering the best wide receivers in the league are 6-0 or better.

A good example of height being an issue was Dez Bryant’s “No Catch “ over Sam Shields, who was at his best at the time (pre-concussion). Bryant is 6-2 and 220 while Shields is 5-11, 184. Bryant owned him as Tony Romo just threw the ball high leaving Shields flaying under Bryant’s outstretched arms.

In addition there are 2 examples of short corners the Packers have drafted high and both were mistakes. First was Ron Wolf’s first draft pick ever the No. 5 pick of the 1992 draft the legendary problem child Terrell Buckley. He stood 5-10 and weighed 180 and was a starter from the start and for 3 seasons. While he had good coverage skills like Shields  and ended up with 50 interceptions (40 after he left the Packers) his problem as a Packer was pass inference penalties because he was a grabber and if you look at Alexander’s weakness you find “can get grabby in man coverage” and that is a big Buckley Red Flag to me.

The 2nd short corner was Ahmad Carroll who was Mike Sherman’s top pick in the 2004 draft with the 25th pick. He stood 5-10, 190. He started as a backup to Michael Hawthorne his rookie season before making 11 starts and then a fulltime starter his 2nd season. His issue was illegal contact penalties (short corners tend to overcompensate). He had 3 interceptions and was cut after 4 games his third year when he was beat by the Eagles Greg Lewis (6-0) for 2 second half touchdowns with a big pass interference penalty preceding the 2nd one.

The Really Short – Today:

Jaire Alexander stands 5-10 and weighs 196 pounds. You can’t coach height and the Packers have a terrible history with short grabby cornerbacks.

Here’s what Ted Thompson did in the draft as far as corners or perceived corners are concerned. He picked Mike Hawkins (2005 #5-167); Will Blackmon (2006 #4-115); Pat Lee (2008 #2-60); Brandon Underwood (2009 #6-187), who was a safety coming out of college; Davon House (2011 #4-131); Casey Hayward (2012 #2-62); Micah Hyde (2013 #5-139); Demetri Goodson (2014 #6-197); Damarious Randall (2015 #1-30), who was a safety; Quinten Rollins (2015 #2-62), who was a safety; Kevin King (2017 #2-33).

Looking at their height:

Kevin King (6-4, 200)

Brandon Underwood (6-1, 197)

Mike Hawkins (6-1, 187)

Will Blackmon (6-0, 212)

Pat Lee (6-0, 200)

Micah Hyde (6-0, 197)

Davon House (6-0, 195)

Demetri Goodson (5-11, 197)

Damarious Randall (5-11, 196)

Quinten Rollins (5-11, 195)

Casey Hayward (5-11, 192)

In addition to King, House, Goodson and Rollins the remainder of the cornerbacks currently on the roster are Lenzy Pipkins (6-0, 196), Donatello Brown (6-0, 190), Herb Waters (6-0, 188), Tramon Williams (5-11, 191) and Josh Hawkins (5-10, 189).

As you can see Thompson didn’t draft any short cornerbacks or sign any undrafted free agents under 5-11, except Josh Hawkins. Once again he must have been still asleep or still on the pot when the pick was picked.

The Short on The Short:

I  hope he is the 2nd best cornerback in the draft and a sure starter with an All-Pro future, but he has 3 issues I think are legitimate red flags, height, grabby and heath issues.

FAKE NEWS:

It seems one of Ted Thompson’s duties as the Packers senior consultant is keep his FAKE NEWS operation going because Jaire Alexander is already on the Packers.com official roster wearing No 23 (Randall’s number, not a good start), but that isn’t the issue. He is listed at 5-11. FAKE NEWS indeed. Also not a good start.