The Wheels On The Bus Are Coming Off

I've spent the past week and a half avoiding thinking about the Packers. I watched the game against the Bears at my old watering hole The Cellar with a peripheral Packer Backer with whom I've seen two previous games with over the years and liked what I saw from the Packers in general and Aaron Rodgers in particular but......

 

Rodgers had a good game, but only because Mike McCarthy was told (I'm guessing about that) to change his offensive philosophy to fit his current personnel instead of thinking he still had a fast Jordy Nelson, a sure-handed James Jones, a game-changer Jermichael Finley at tight end, a No. 1 receiver Greg Jennings and a No. 1 receiver Donald Driver, instead of a slow Jordy, a slow Randall Cobb, a slow Davante Adams, a slow Ty Montgomery, a slower Richie Rodgers and faster but unused Jeff Janis and Trevor Davis at wideout and Justin Perillo at tight end.

 

However, the Bears are bad and may not win another game this season. Today the Packers play the Falcons, who are ranked 26h in total defense and 31st in passing defense, which should mean Rodgers, during a normal year, would have a field day, but who knows what this Rodgers and this dysfunctional offense will do?

Last week when the passing game was 1-2-3 pass the offense was cooking, but when he took a 5 or 7 step drop the offense ground to a halt. As has been the case since last year the Packer wide receivers and tight ends don't get open if the route goes beyond 10 yards. They just run at half speed and find a man to cover them. The only routes that are open are the quick-hitters in the flat.

 

Montgomery did a fine job last week as the main runner and receiver out of the backfield as did Cobb, but Cobb is out for the game leaving Rodgers will very few options. Newcomer Knile Davis may have to be ready to play this week with only him and fullback Aaron Ripkowski as the only true running backs with Montgomery questionable with an illness, Don Jackson hampered with a hand injury, James Starks out after knee surgery, Eddie Lacy out on Injured Reserve, and Cobb out with a hamstring.

 

Adams has to continue to be the go-to receiver he was developing into the later part of his rookie season, but didn't become last year and, if last week is any indication, he was becoming again.

 

Almost everything General Manager Ted Thompson did during the off-season and it wasn't much, has blown up. He signed Jared Cook to be a Jermichael Finley, but he has played in just 3 games (starting 2) with 6 catches for 53 yards. He began in Packers career missing all of the offseason work after foot surgery and now has missed the last 3 games with an ankle injury.

 

Thompson's other free agent acquisition was outside linebacker Lerentee McCray from Denver. I thought it was a ridiculous acquisition since the most stocked position on the team was outside linebacker with Clay Matthews moving back outside and the most needy position was inside linebacker.

 

He could have had another Bronco inside linebacker Danny Trevathan just for the asking because he wanted to come to Green Bay. But he didn't even contact him. Trevathan became a starter for the Bears and McCray never played during the preseason and was traded to the Bills for a conditional 2018 #7 pick.

 

Thompson cut Josh Sitton, who is now the starting left guard for the Bears, and elevated Lane Taylor to left guard. Taylor and the offensive line hasn't been the problem, so I guess that move worked. Sitton has been hurt and is questionable with an ankle injury.

 

Another move was benching Julius Peppers, one of the few bright spots on a very dull defense, for former No. 1 bust Nick Perry making Peppers as situational pass rusher. That move has half worked. Perry is leading the team in sacks with 5.5 and is 6th in tackles with 26 and more importantly has not missed a snap because of injury.

 

Peppers, on the other hand, has 2.5 sacks with 6 tackles and is not earning his lofty pay. No. 3 pick Kyler Fackrell has 2 sacks and is cheaper, which is something Thompson thinks about every moment. I bet when Thompson has a staff meeting he provides day old donuts and makes each person pay for the coffee.
Thompson cut Tim Mastay and signed street free agent and two-time loser Jacob Schrum at punter. It's hard to say if this move has worked. Masthay needed to be cut and he hasn't been signed by anybody else and as far as I've seen he has only had one tryout. Schum is the 31st ranked punter averaging 41.1 net yards with 3 inside the 20. The leaders is averaging 44.8.

 

Once again all of the Thompson's draft picks made the team (which I think is preordained to make Thompson look good) and so far he has hit with his No. 4 inside linebacker Blake Martinez, who is starting next to 2015 No. 4 pick Jake Ryan. The only inside linebacker backup is Joe Thomas. Talk about lack of depth.

 

No. 1 pick defensive lineman Kenny Clark was out of his element early in camp and is just now beginning to show something, but that isn't what you want from a No. 1 pick. Normally your No. 1 should be ready to play.

 

No. 3 Kyler Fackrell has shown some promise at outside linebacker as far as rushing the passer as had No. 4 Dean Lowery as defensive end. But neither play much as well they shouldn't on a normal championship caliber team. No 2 Jason Spriggs at tackle hasn't needed to play much and No. 6 tackle Kyle Murphy has been inactive.

 

No. 5 Davis hasn't been able to break into the lineup, either at wideout or in the return game, despite being one of the few on the team with speed.

 

This week camp surprise undrafted free agent Geronimo Allison was brought up from the practice squad to replace Jared Abbrederis (quad) who was placed on injured reserve. Undrafted free agent safety Jermaine Whitehead was brought up to replace Chris Banjo, who was also placed on injured reserve with a hamstring injury.

 

Word on the street was Abbrederis was waived with an injury settlement and Banjo will soon be. It is a fast fall for Abbrederis, who was the local press, Thompson and McCarthy's favorite leaving the only man who was producing last year when he infrequently played Janis as the redheaded stepchild.

 

Thompson also signed a rookie cornerback Keith Baxter formerly with the Vikings to the practice squad, but he was cut two days later. His signing made sense because starting cornerbacks Sam Shields (injured reserve-concussion), Damarious Randall (groin surgery) and Quinten Rollis (groin) are out leaving 2015 undrafted free agent LaDarius Gunter and 2014 No. .6 and former basketball player Demetri Goodson as the starters against the Falcons with 2016 undrafted free agent Josh Hawkins as the only cornerbacks currently active with no cornerbacks on the practice squad.

 

After he was cut Thompson re-signed rookie undrafted free agent center Jacob Flores to the practice squad and switched practice squad rookie undrafted free agent wide receiver Herb Waters to cornerback. Let's hope he can make the transition like Shields did, but there must a cornerback out there somewhere. Heaven help us.

 

It seems right guard T.J. Lang (hip) and Clay Matthews (hamstring) are questionable for the game and even if they start they may not make it through the entire game. That leaves Don Barclay as the only backup at guard and center and Peppers will have to play more than normal.

 

The Packers (4-2) are hurting bad and here's what the talking heads are saying about the Falcons (4-3) game.

 

NFL.com: Packers 27-24. This trip to Atlanta marks the first leg of a stretch that sees the Pack playing away from Lambeau in four out of the next five games. Sunday's outcome, at least in my eyes, is contingent on two factors: A) How effective Matt Ryan is on intermediate throws against the Green Bay secondary. B) Mike McCarthy's play calling: vanilla ... or aggressive in fully exploiting the versatility of Ty Montgomery and Randall Cobb?(Cobb is out and Montgomery is ill). The latter point is in response to the grumblings I've heard that McCarthy is not helping his quarterback with the old play charts. Ever since the then-undefeated Packers were stunned in Denver last November, it seems the offense hasn't lived up to our expectations. Over the past 16 regular-season games -- starting with that ill-fated outing against the Broncos -- the Packers have averaged 21.5 points per contest. In 2014, they averaged 30.4 (a league-high). Quite a difference. Matt Ryan, on the other hand, endured his worst game of the season last week, and it appears he won't have Tevin Coleman at his disposal this week. If Devonta Freeman can't shake free of Green Bay's stout run defense, this deal will be all on Ryan.

 

CBS.com: Jason La Canfora, Jared Dubin and Ryan Wilson pick the Falcons. Pete Prisco, Will Brinson, John Breech, Dave Richard and Jamey Eisenberg pick the Packers. Editors Note: I don't know any of those guys.

 

SB Nation: Falcons (-3) over the Packers. The Packers just can’t seem to find any consistency, but it’s not like the Falcons have had a lot of that recently either. Still, the home team is the safest play here. That and taking the over, which is 52.5 points.

 

USA Today: Luke Kerr-Dinean: Another loss for the Falcons and that’s three-straight, which puts the division back up for grabs. Must-win games count for a lot in the NFL, especially at home. I guess he's picking the Falcons. Steven Ruiz: Aaron Rodgers will score enough points to keep this one close. The Packers should be able to slow down Atlanta’s ground game, too. Give me the points.

 

New York Times: Two teams with good quarterbacks, questionable running games and bad secondaries could result in a wild game of throwing the ball up and seeing what happens. In the past, that might have favored Packers quarterback Aaron Rodgers, but other than in last week’s easy win over the struggling Chicago Bears, he has not looked nearly as polished this season as Atlanta’s Matt Ryan. Ryan leads the N.F.L. with 2,348 passing yards and has averaged a remarkable 9.6 yards an attempt, by far his career high. Rodgers is averaging 6.3 yards an attempt, his lowest average since he became the team’s starter in 2008. Pick: Falcons

 

Me: Rodgers (148-237-(62.7%)- 1,496-13TD-4int) has had great games at Atlanta and the Falcon defense should be easy to pick on. However, without a running game and not being able to throw farther than 10 yards down the field makes this game tough.

 

With Cobb (39-388-2TD-9.9 ave) out that leaves the catching game with Jordy Nelson (27-321-5TDs-11.9), Davante Adams (28-350-5TDs-12.5), Jeff Janis (4-23-0TD-5.8),Trevor Davis (0-0-0TD) and Geronimo Allison (0-0-0TD) as the only wide receivers. At tight end it is Richie Rodgers (9-84-1TD-9.3) and Justin Perillo (2-17-0TD-8.5) and at running back it is Ty Montgomery (20-164-0TD-8.2) and Aaron Ripkowski (2-10-0TD-5.5). The wideouts are averaging 11.8 yards per catch, the tight ends 9.2 and the running backs 7.9. PITIFUL.

 

The running game is just as pitiful. Rodgers is the leading rusher with 96 yards on 22 carries and 2 TDs. Montgomery has 66 yards on 14 carries (4.7 ave.), Ripkowski (25 yards on 6 carries) and Davis 1 yard on 2 carries.

 

Defensively, the Packers are suspect with Gunter and Goodson covering Julio Jones, the No. 1 receiver in the league in yards per catch 20.8 with 40 catches for 830 yards and 4 TDs.

 

With all of that in mind I predict: Falcons 34-17.