Week 1: What They're Saying

Power Rankings:

FOX SPORTS.com By Dan Parzych/FanSided via Ramblin' Fan on Sept. 2

No. 4 (1. Patriots. 2. Panthers. 3. Seahawks)

Since taking over the starting job at quarterback for the Green Bay Packers in 2008, Aaron Rodgers has thrown double-digit interceptions only twice during the regular season. In fact, Rodgers has only thrown 13 interceptions over the last two seasons and with one of his favorite targets in Jordy Nelson (ACL) returning for the 2016 season, the Packers quarterback should be in for another monster season. Despite all of their struggles displayed throughout the 2015 season, Green Bay was on the verge of reaching the NFC Championship last January before losing in overtime to the Cardinals. Between the return of Nelson along with a slimmer Eddie Lacy, the potential is high for the Packers' offense to display big numbers, as they should be considered favorites in the NFC North heading into Week 1. With seven-straight playoff appearances, don't be surprised if that number moves up to eight for the Packers.

(MY NOTE: Josh Sitton was cut on Sept. 3. The Bears were ranked last at 32).

 

WalterFootball.com Final Preseason Rankings on Sept. 5

No. 1 up from No. 4. (2. Bengals. 3. Panthers. 4. Steelers. 5. Vikings).

I'm moving the Packers up to the top spot. After re-watching the entire 2015 season, I remembered how much bad luck they had. Aaron Rodgers was banged up. Randall Cobb's shoulder was barely staying on. Jordy Nelson was out. The offensive linemen were hurt, as some of them could barely walk. Eddie Lacy gained 500 pounds. And worse of all, there was the great cheese shortage of 2015. What, you don't remember that? Well, I can't say I'm surprised, as only fat men with bad backs like me were aware of that. 

ProFootballTalk.com Power Rankings on Sept. 5

No. 7. (1. Broncos. 2. Panthers. 3. Patriots. 4. Seahawks. 5. Cardinals. 6. Steelers)

Yes, they would have been higher if they hadn’t dumped Josh Sitton on Saturday."

 

NFL.com  Power Rankings, Week 1 by Elliot Harrison on Sept. 6:

No. 4 down from No. 3 (1. Panthers. 2. Cardinals. 3. Seahawks).

Why the slight drop? Simple: The Seahawks look imposing, and we haven't seen any Jordy Nelson in the preseason. The biggest reason Green Bay bolted up to No. 3 around Hall of Fame weekend was because Eddie Lacy was slimmed down -- and, yes, Nelson was returning. Then he didn't play. Aaron Rodgers looked like Aaron Rodgers the other night in Santa Clara. There is even buzz around Jared Cook's participation in the offense. The defense looked more like American cheese than Swiss cheese in the preseason. All that being wonderful and lovely, Nelson has to be full bore in Week 1. This ain't 1995. That is going to be a tough deal down in Jacksonville.

 

CBSSports. com by Pete Pisco on Sept. 7:

No. 1. (2. Patriots. 3. Patriots. 4. Cardinals. 5. Seahawks)

Aaron Rodgers won't have the same type of season he had in 2015, and they were close to the title game. That says a lot about what a great QB means.

 

ESPN.com Week One Power Rankings on Sept. 7:

No. 6 down from 4. (1. Seahawks. 2. Steelers. 3. Patriots. 4. Cardinals. 5. Panthers)

According to ESPN's Football Power Index (FPI), the Packers are currently favored in all 16 games this season. That doesn't mean they'll go 16-0, but odds are the Packers could find themselves climbing even higher than sixth in these rankings in the near future.

 

USATODAY. com on Sept. 7

No. 6. (1. Cardinals. 2. Patriots. 3. Panthers. 4. Steelers. 5. Seahawks)

Green Bay has to prove last year's offensive slump was an aberration rather than a trend. QB Aaron Rodgers should be elated by the return of WR Jordy Nelson from a torn ACL.

 

Bleacher Report.com by Chris Roling on Sept. 8

No. 6 (1. Panthers. 2. Cardinals. 3. Patriots. 4. Bengals. 5. Seahawks)

 

OddsShark.com on Sept. 10

No. 16 (up from 17 the previous week)

 

 

Previews:

 



NFL.com Week 1 Cheat Sheet By Kevin Patra

Green Bay slogged through its worst offensive season under Aaron Rodgers' watch in 2015. While injuries at receiver played a big role, Eddie Lacy's dismal season loomed large as the running back had career lows in rushing yards, TDs and yards per carry. His rejuvenation from the jump will be key for a balanced Packers offense. A rebuilt Jaguars defense that, for the first time in years has playmakers at all three levels, will get a great test in Week 1. We'll see if the additions of Malik Jackson, Dante Fowler Jr., Jalen Ramsey and Myles Jack (to name four) are ready to slow one of the most potent offenses in the NFL.

The Packers' young, upcoming defensive backfield has a tough first step against the flashy, productive duo in Allen Robinson and Allen Hurns. With Blake Bortles showing maturity in the pocket this preseason, the Jags should be one of the most entertaining and explosive offenses in the NFL.

Say what? Stat of the week: No Packers tight end has ever had 65-plus receptions or 800-plus receiving yards from Aaron Rodgers in a season. Jared Cook -- who also has never reached those totals -- hopes to change that.

(MY NOTE: No Packers tight end has had 65 receptions in a season ever. Jermichael Finley holds the record with 61 in 2012 from Rodgers. The next best is 56 by Paul Coffman in 1979 from David Whitehurst. But he is right about yards the Packers record is 814 by Paul Coffman in 1983 from  Lynn Dickey. Jermichael Finley is second with 767 in 2011 from Rodgers. No tight end records were set with Brett Favre. I guess he just likes to rag Rodgers)

 

Key Game time Decisions:

Green Bay Packers: WR Jeff Janis (hand)

The playoff wonder participated all week fully.

 

Predictions:

 

On The Way To The Game

NFL. com by Elliot Harrison: Green Bay 34-31

I know, I know: Both of these defenses are supposed to be much better. Packers fans are honking about this being a stout enough D to win a fifth Lombardi Trophy. Jags fans think their unit is at the point now where Jacksonville can win the AFC South. On the other side of the ball, Blake Bortles led a strong offense last year that had fantasy owners crooning for him and Allen Robinson. Truth be told, the offense was only 14th in points scored. So Gus Bradley's defense is going to need to be better than merely average for the team to make the postseason for the first time since 2007. This game could go either way, but I think both offenses should be able to move the ball. Look for a slow first half, then both teams put up serious points late.

 

HELP

New York Times by Benjamin Hoffman: Line is Packers by 5 1/2

There is no shortage of optimism for Jacksonville’s future after an off-season that revamped the team’s roster with shrewd draft picks and expensive free agents. The phrase “won the off-season” was bandied about, and it is hard to argue that another team made as many positive changes.

But the problem with winning the off-season is that it was probably preceded by a lot of losing, and that is definitely true for the Jaguars, who have not finished with a winning record since 2007 and are 19-61 over the last five seasons.

There is no telling how the various pieces will mesh, but after the Jaguars were ranked 31st in the N.F.L. in points allowed last season, defense may no longer hold them back. That is because of additions like Malik Jackson, Prince Amukamara and Tashaun Gipson through free agency and Jalen Ramsey and Myles Jack through the draft. Jackson, a lineman who is coming off a Super Bowl win with the suffocating Denver Broncos defense, will be able to impart some of what he learned under the defensive coordinator Wade Phillips, but he will be adjusting to a 4-3 alignment after thriving in Phillips’s 3-4.

While losing teams rebuild, winning teams reload. The Packers have done that with the return of Jordy Nelson, the team’s top wide receiver, who missed last season because of injury. Nelson is likely to be on a snap count to ease his return, but his presence turns Randall Cobb into an excellent No. 2 receiver, from a disappointing No. 1, and lets Davante Adams focus on just being a deep threat. Jared Cook, a tight end added as a free agent after his release by the Rams, may also step into an unexpectedly large role in the offense led by quarterback Aaron Rodgers.

Despite all of those receiving threats, much of the talk around Green Bay has been about the off-season weight loss by Eddie Lacy, the team’s big, bruising running back. Lacy became the latest athlete to show up in “the best shape of his life,” which is a trope that no one seems to tire of.

The future appears bright for Jacksonville, but beating Green Bay is probably still too optimistic. PICK: PACKERS

 

This Hat Makes My Look

SB Nation.com

Our panel is convinced the Chiefs, Packers, Seahawks and Texans are all locks this week. And when you look at who those four teams are playing, it makes sense, except for maybe one.

Green Bay opens the season against Jacksonville. No team did more to improve during the offseason than the Jaguars, spending big to fill holes in free agency and landing the two biggest fish in the draft with their first two picks. Our picks here are for straight up winners, not against the spread, but the line for this game is worth mentioning. The Packers are favored anywhere from 6 to 4.5 points. I'm looking forward to seeing if Jacksonville's moves this spring have formed a cohesive team and whether or not Gus Bradley can live up to the promise on his roster.

 

SportsIllustrated.com by Chris Burke

Packers 35, Jaguars 31

Wavered on this pick before locking in the Packers, in a shootout. Green Bay has lofty expectations headed into 2016, but a) let’s not assume the offense has left all of its 2015 problems behind, and b) the Jaguars are going to score some points. Green Bay’s suddenly Josh Sitton-less line also will have its hands full against the likes of Malik Jackson and Dante Fowler. All that said, Jacksonville still has to prove it belongs with the big boys.

Watchability Score: 9. Aaron Rodgers may be the league’s top QB, but Allen Robinson deserves to be mentioned among the best receivers. Talent all over the place here.

 

I Back The Pack

FOX SPORTS.com

Packers 26.1, Jaguars 20.5 (winning percentage 67.4%)

 

WalterFootball.com

Edge: Packers.

GREEN BAY OFFENSE: I picked the Packers to win the Super Bowl this year. I think they're the best team, and they're due to bounce back from last season's disappointment. Aaron Rodgers dealt with an injured shoulder; Randall Cobb was even more hurt; Jordy Nelson was out; Eddie Lacy was fat; some of the offensive linemen were banged up; and there was a cheese shortage that only us fat men know about. 

Everything seems great now, save for Josh Sitton's strange release. Still, I think the Packers' offense will be clicking on all cylinders. This is a great matchup for them as well. The Jaguars have some promising young defensive players in Jalen Ramsey and Myles Jack, and while I think they'll both end up being great pros, it doesn't seem like they're going to be quite prepared to defeat a great quarterback like Rodgers. 

The Jaguars did manage to sport a solid ground defense last year, so I don't think the Packers will score on every possession, or anything like that. However, Green Bay will definitely be consistent in its attack, as the Jaguars don't have the pass rush or secondary to combat the best quarterback in the NFL right now. 

JACKSONVILLE OFFENSE: The Jaguars are yet another team that has received a ton of hype, but that quelled a bit by their performance in the preseason finale versus Cincinnati. Jacksonville's starting scoring unit couldn't do anything against the Bengals. Granted, Cincinnati has one of the stop units in the NFL, but the same can be said about Green Bay's defense. 

The Packers are capable of putting a heavy amount of pressure on opposing signal-callers - they registered 43 sacks in 2015 with Clay Matthews playing inside - which is going to spell trouble for Blake Bortles. The Jaguars have some major concerns up front, particularly with Luke Joeckel, and I think Green Bay can easily expose that liability. This will lead to more bad decision-making from Bortles, who will have to pad his stats in the second half, per usual. 

RECAP: I'm never thrilled to wager on a publicly backed road favorite, but that's what I'll be doing here. The Packers are one of the best teams in the NFL, while the Jaguars are one of the worst. This spread is relatively small - I think it should be at least six - so I'm fine with betting two units on the Packers. 

That said, I really wish this line were three. I can envision a scenario in which the Packers are up by 10 late, and then Bortles throws a back-door touchdown with seconds remaining in regulation. Still, I think this game is a complete mismatch and that Green Bay is worth a wager. 

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: The public is moving this line up. The pros haven't touched this game, and understandably so. Why bet one of the worst teams in the NFL versus one of the best if you're not getting a ton of points?

 

What You Looking At Willis

ESPN.com

Matt Bowen, Adam Caplan, Mike Golic, Dan Graziano, Merril Hoge, Ron Jaworski, KC Joyner, Randy Seifert and Pick 'em all picked the Packers. Seth Wickersham picked the Jaguars.

(MY NOTE: Matt Bowen played safety for the Packers in 2001 and 2002)

 

(FURTHER MY NOTES: Speaking of national media talking mouths former Packer linebacker Brady Poppinga is on FOX SPORTS Radio. Former assistant coach Mike Mariucci and former training camp arm Kurt Warner are on the NFL Network. Former Super Bowl MVP Desmond Howard is on ESPN. John Anderson (not the Packers Hall of Fame linebacker) from Green Bay Southwest High School is also on ESPN. Former Super Bowl left guard Aaron Taylor is a CBS college football analyst )

 

Finally My Pick: Green Bay 24, Jaguars 17.