YOU DID WHAT?

I was almost totally wrong in my prediction about the Packers' first round pick in the 2015 NFL Draft. Well, maybe not totally wrong now that I think about. There were two parts of my prediction and I will examine my performance in two parts.

 

Part 1: So here comes my prediction. If (Marcus) Peters drops Thompson takes him at No. 30 red flags withstanding. If he doesn't and (Jalen) Collins is still there then he trades down (hopefully no less than six spots) and tries to draft him there or takes either (Eric) Kendricks, (Denzel) Perryman or (Benardrick) McKinney.

 

No. 1: I was right Peters wasn't there (I'll take any victories at this point). No. 2: I was right Collins was still available. No. 3: I was wrong Thompson didn't trade down.

 

Part 2: I could be totally wrong and (Thompson) goes off the board and picks a wide receiver or he stays with the need position and picks a name out of left field.

 

I hit this one right on the nose. Thompson went off the board and stayed with the need position and picked a name out of left field.

 

FINAL TALLY: On Part 1 I was right two out of three technically, but totally wrong on the whole. On Part 2 I was totally right (more or less). Not bad score for being wrong.

 

Damarious Randall

Now, if you're still listening to anything I have to say, here's my thoughts on free safety (soon to be cornerback) Damarious Randall from Arizona State.

 

No. 1: He was rated either the top (by Mike Mayock) or the second (by NFL.com) safety on the board, but safety was not hot position commodity, so I think he could have been drafted in Round Two.

A MIXED BAG OF NO. 1 PICKS

We're five days away from the 2015 NFL Draft. And even though it is being held in Chicago I am looking forward to it.

 

I have two reasons, or is it three, I'm not a fan of Chicago. First, Bears. Nuff said. Second, I live in Southern Illinois and those denizen's on the North Shore see Illinois as Chicago and the rest of the state. Us who live below the Eisenhower are considered bumpkins. And three, I live in a town with a lot of temporarily transplanted Chicago students and if I go to the local bar to watch the Packers games I have to suffer the slings and arrows - sometimes that is literally - of the Bears fans who love to harass Packer Backers. I think I can state without fear of contradiction (except for those delusional Bear fans who turn everything around - we all know people like that) the Bear fans are the ugliest and meanest in the world. I guess having to defend Jay Cutler can make you testy.

 

But I digress. I will now address General Manager Ted Thompson's track record with No. 1 draft picks. He's had 10 and it's a very mixed bag with high highs and low lows.

 

Thompson had two big hits and another who might turn out to be. His first big hit literally fell into his lap. Two-time MVP and Super Bowl MVP Aaron Rodgers was talked about as possibly being the No. 1 overall pick, but for some reason he was suddenly the red-headed step child of the first round.

 



Aaron Rodgers Super Bowl MVP

 

Future Hall of Famer (I have to LOL on that one) Alex Smith was chosen No. 1 overall by the San Francisco 49ers by first-year General Manager Scot McCloughan, first-year Head Coach Mike Nolan and first-year Offensive Coordinator Mike McCarthy. Isn't it ironic, don't you think?

I DECIDED TO ACCEPT THE MISSION TO GO ON A FOOL'S ERRAND

You will find a 100 different mock drafts with this or that scenario leading to the 30th pick in the first round. When it comes to the other 31 teams, or maybe the other 30, since the Raiders seem to defy logic a lot of time, most of them are very logical and end up picking someone at a need position.

 

But in the case of the Packers it's a fool's errand to predict what General Manager Ted Thompson is going to do, so the art of predicting is a very imprecise. But I will try anyway because...I'm the smartest guy in the room and...whoops, you heard that. I didn't realize I was thinking out loud. Be that as it may let's continue.

 

First let's look back to see what Thompson has done over the past 10 drafts. He has the reputation (through his own words prior to each draft) of drafting the best athlete available (BAA) regardless of position, but does he deserve it? Let's see.

 

Ted Thompson in the War Room

 

2005: 1-24 (QB Aaron Rodgers) - Needs: guard, safety, defensive end, strong side linebacker and running back. However, Brett Favre was nearing the end and the only quarterbacks on the roster were future Hall of Famers (tongue deep in both cheeks) J. T. Sullivan and Craig Nall, so when Rodgers had dropped from No. 1 overall to be available at 24 a future replacement for Favre became the biggest need. NEED.

DRAFT DAY TRADES

The Packers hold the No. 30th draft pick in the first round and my guess is General Manager Ted Thompson will probably trade down to acquire more draft picks than trade up. I have a reason for making that prediction.

 

When the draft opens Thompson has nine picks. The Packers have all seven of their own picks (No. 1-30; No. 2-62; No. 3-94; No. 4-129; No. 5-166; No. 6-205; No. 7-247) and two compensatory picks (No. 6-210 and No. 6-212), which can't be traded, for losing wide receiver James Jones to Oakland and center Evan Diertrick-Smith to Tampa Bay. Defensive end C. J. Wilson to Oakland and offensive tackle Marshall Newhouse to Cincinnati were also free agency losses, but they weren't deemed good enough for compensation).

 

Thompson has been very active on draft day making 27 trades on draft day during his previous 10 drafts. In his first draft he traded down in the third round (No. 89) for two No. 4's (115 and 126). He then traded down again trading the No. 4 (126) for two No. 5's (167 and 175), and a No. 7 (245). He traded down for the third time trading the No. 6 (175) for a No. 6 (195) and a No. 7 (246).

 

In the end he traded away a No. 3-89 (DT Atiyyah Ellison), a No. 4-126 (T Todd Heremans) and a No. 5-175 (DT Anttaj Hawthorne) for a No. 4-115 (S Marviel Underwood), a No. 5-167 (CB Mike Hawkins), a No. 6-195 (WR Craig Bragg), a No. 7-245 (LB Kurt Campbell) and a No. 7-246 (G Will Whitticker). To sum up three draft picks for five.

 

ANALYSIS: None of the five picks Thompson acquired amounted to anything (see Lombardi's Den Draft Redux) while Ellison played six years for seven teams; Heremans was a solid starter for the Eagles for 10 years before signing with the Colts recently; and Hawthorne played two seasons with the Raiders and ended his short career in the Arena League. RESULT: Minus.