Aaron Rodgers and the Packers are at a Crossroads

I think it would be safe to say if Aaron Rodgers played like Aaron Rodgers the Packers would be in the playoffs, despite the terrible leadership and play calling of Mike McCarthy and the terrible leadership and team building of Ted Thompson and his successor Brian Gutekunst. Rodgers had always overcompensated for those frauds Thompson and McCarthy, but for some unknown reason he hasn’t been able to do that this year for Gutekunst and McCarthy.

Going into the final game of the 2018 season (the second in row the Packers will miss the playoffs after being a playoff (Super Bowl aspirant) staple for the previous 8 years under Rodgers, McCarthy and Thompson’s leadership.

Despite suffering a serious knee injury in the 1st game against the Bears Rodgers has played all, but two series this season because DeShone Kizer is as bad or worst than Brett Hundley. Playing on one leg for the majority of the 1st half of season may be the cause of what has happened this season.

Despite all of that Rodgers has a chance to break the Packers season record for yards passing. He currently has 4,416 yards and needs just 228 to break his 2011 record of 4,643. Lynn Dickey held the record for 28 years after he passed for 4,458 in 1983 shattering his previous record of 3,529 set in 1980.

NOTE: The only Packers passers to have surpassed 3,000 yards were Lynn Dickey (1980, 1983, 1984), Don Majkowski (1989), Brett Favre (16 times) and Aaron Rodgers (9 times).

ANOTHER NOTE: The only Packers to have passed for 4,000 yards are Dickey (1983, who became the 5th or 6th (Bill Kenney also had 4,000 yards in 1983) to do it in NFL history), Majkowski (1989-4,318), Favre (5 times-Favre also passed for 4,202 with the Vikings in 2009) and Rodgers (7 times).

THIRD NOTE: Joe Namath (Jets) was the 1st to pass for 4,000 when he threw for 4,007 yards in 1967. He remained the only one until Dan Fouts (Chargers) in 1979 (4,082); Dan Fouts (Chargers) 1980 (4,715); Brian Sipe (Browns) 1980 (4,132); Dan Fouts (Chargers) 1981 (4,802) and Bill Kenney (Chiefs) 1983 (4,348).

He also can break his 2016 record of 610 passes attempted (he has 592 and needs just 19 attempts) and his 2016 record of 401 completions if he completes 33 passes (he has 369, which is an outside chance, but doable).

Another accomplishment is he set a NFL record for most passes without an interception of 402 straight passes breaking Tom Brady’s record of 358. He will also set the NFL record for lowest interception percentage if he doesn’t throw an interception against the Lions. He currently has just 2 interceptions in 369 attempts. No other passer had less than 4 with at least 100 passes thrown. The previous best for Rodgers was 5 in 2014.

However, those are the only bright spots for Rodgers play this season. He has only 25 TD passes (his lowest in a full season since he became a starter. His previous low was 28 in his first season as a starter in 2008 and ironically in 2010 when he won the Super Bowl. He only threw for 16 in 2017 when he missed 9 games and 17 in 2013 when he missed 7 games.

His completion percentage (62.3) is his lowest since 2015 when he completed just 60.7. His quarterback rating of 97.8 is his lowest since 92.7 in 2015 and 97.2 last year. He’s only had 3 seasons below 100 with the other being 98.3 his first season in 2008.

What is his problem? Rodgers will tell you (by body language and by his actions during a game) that the young receivers are the problem. They all have Jeff Janis issues of not running precise routs and not adjusting their routs when the play breaks down and it does often. That results in him throwing the ball away out of bounds more than he has in his entire career (in fact he is averaging 1 of 10 passes being a throwaway and if he does that again against the Lions he will set the NFL record (which has been kept since 2006).

Let’s say it is the green receivers causing him to throw the ball away more often when that hasn’t been option before. However, I have seen every game and what I have seen isn’t the green receivers, but inaccuracy. He has overthrow TD passes, which is something he never did before; he has underthrown passes, which is something he never did before; he is not seeing open receivers, which is something he never did before. The problem as far as his completion rate is concerned is his own throws.

Let’s say it is the green receivers. But he also had Jordy Nelson and Randall Cobb the last 3 seasons and his average yardage per pass has been at its worst the previous last 3 seasons (2015: 6.7; 2016: 7.3; 2017: 7.0; and this season 7.5 while the previous 7 seasons were 2008: 7.5; 2009: 8,2; 2010: 8.3; 2011: 9.2; 2012: 7.8; 2013: 8.7; 2014: 8.4).

Rodgers has been healthy from the knee injury since at least game 9. He has a groin injury, but that shouldn’t affect his throwing only his scrambling. The knee injury may have thrown his mechanics off making him throw off his back foot, which could effect his accuracy and distance. You would think if it is mechanics then his quarterback coach would know that and would have corrected it, but that doesn’t seem to have happened. Either Rodgers has become totally uncoachable or the quarterback coach is being iced out because Rodgers liked the one that McCarthy fired or the quarterback coach is incompetent. Either way Rodgers is screwed up and neither him or anyone else knows it or doesn’t care.

Since McCarthy was fired Rodgers has looked more like his previous self. Completing 65.6 against the Falcons and 67.3 against the Jets while the Bears held him to 59.2. He threw for 442 yards against the Jets tying him for 442 against the Lions and 425 against the 49ers. He has thrown for 5 TDs and 1 interception in the last 3 games. And if you take away the 3 TDs he threw against the Bears in the second half of game 1 he had only 17 TD passes in the other 11 games.

I hope it's mechanics and green receivers and not the beginning of his decline. I hope it’s not him signing that huge contract and thusly letting down, but I don’t see that happening. I think Rodgers is more proud than that. He looks more like himself last week, but again his best games have been against bad defenses.

If it is mechanics that can be fixed with a new coaching staff. If it is green receivers that will be fixed with a year under their belt. However, if it is the beginning of his decline no matter who the new coach is the Packers are in trouble. DeShone Kizer and Tim Boyle are not NFL caliber quarterbacks. I can’t see the Packers picking a quarterback with their top 15 pick this offseason and hitting it big with a Patrick Mahomes, Deshaun Watson or even Dak Prescott or Carson Wentz or Baker Mayfield.

Tomorrow and next preseason will tell. Let’s hope the Packers have dodged a bullet and Rodgers will be fine, but even if they have they have to consider the heir apparent this offseason and a veteran quarterback to back him up from the rest of his career. At the very least he is becoming injury prone and leaving the Packers fortunes to a cheap backup is just a thing Ted Thompson would do and we all know, except for the Packers Hall of Fame, Ted Thompson did the Packers no favors his last 7 years and left them in such a bad position the Packers fired a head coach, who won a Super Bowl, for the first time during a season in the 100 years.

Sorry I hate Ted Thompson and horse didn’t ride away into the sunset on. The Packers and Rodgers are at a crossroads. Competent leaders are needed and I don’t think Mark Murphy is the man to lead the Packers out of his incompetence of keeping Thompson unsupervised for 7 years before being forced to make a change (sort of). New people need to be hired to stop this decline NOW or this will become the third Wilderness Years joining 1948-58 and 1968-91.

The time is now and drastic measures are needed. The first was firing McCarthy and the next is the right hire as head coach. I hope Murphy is up to the task, but I doubt it. Now for something real drastic I would be a better CEO than Murphy. I can see the forest for the trees and I would never have let the Packers waste Rodgers prime years like Murphy and Thompson did.

One more thing about the Packers and Murphy's obsessive love affair with Ted Thompson. To announce Thompson will be elected to the Packers Hall of Fame is a travesty. Like I said he wasted the prime years of the best quarterback in football. He never put enough talent around him to be a champion, but he did put the exact minimum to keep the Packers a playoff paper tiger. He should have been escorted out the door with his meager belongs in a cardboard box. To enshrine him at the Shrine is a ridiculous. Just look how he left the Packers.

Back to Murphy. After last season proved that Rodgers was the key man on the team and in connection with that his backup Murphy decided to make some changes or so that's the way it was sold to us poor ignorant masses when Ted Thompson was promoted, his handpicked underling and I believe his handpicked successor Brian Gutekunst was promoted and the rest of Thompson's front office, except for Elliot Wolf, was promoted. While I might not be a high priced sport reporter (I'm just a poor working sports reporter for the past 20 years) I don't see how the shakeup of the front office was a shakeup, except for Murphy taking control when he was just a figurehead with Thompson in control and utter control of the Packers present and future.

So Murphy made those front office changes as much as they were and then made the bigger decision to retain Mike McCarthy and either force him to fire Defensive Coordinator Dom Capers, Defensive Line Coach Mike Trgovac, Assistant Linebackers Coach Scott McCurley, Offensive Coordinator Edgar Bennett and quarterbacks coach Alex Van Pelt and bring in Mike Pettine, Patrick Graham, Joe Philbin and Frank Cignetti (I will admit this was change). However Jeff Montgomery was promoted to replace Trgovac (change I don't think so). The other changes on the coaching staff were cosmetic in nature giving the coaches fancy names as Graham also being defensive run game coordinator and promoting cornerback coach Joe Whitt, Jr. to defensive pass game coordinator. The special teams assistant Jason Simmons was moved to secondary coach and etc, etc, and get this McCurley was rehired as "defensive assistant". Except for Capers to Pettine and Bennett to Philbin and Van Pelt to Cignetti the rest of the changes were not really changes. The same attitude remained in the clubhouse, so what happened this year with the complete collapse of the Packers in all phases of the operation is totally Murphy's fault. I felt after last season the entire front office and coaching staff should have been fired with the exception of Wolf, who should have been named General Manager. I will say once again or was for the seventh time that the entire front office needs to be replaced in order for the Packers to turn this slide around quickly.

So to sum up, the 2008-present years could have been the best dynasty in the history of the Packers and the NFL, but it wasn’t because of incompetence and ego. Like I said the time is now and drastic measure are needed.