Friday, December 2, 2016

If We Only Had Defense

"We could while away the hours, conferrin' with the powers, consultin' with Mike Pence. And my head I'd be scratchin' while playoff thoughts were hatchin' if we only had defense."
 
Prior to the win over the Eagles last Monday Night the Packers suffered through a four-game losing streak, the longest since a 5-game streak in 2008 when Aaron Rodgers became the starter and the team fell to 6-10.
 
While the Packers offense in general and Aaron Rodgers in particular had been dysfunctional at best and downright awful at worse for 14 straight regular season games it wasn't the offense that let a 4-2 record fall to 4-6.
 
Rodgers with the help of a offensive game plan that was designed to fit the current personnel instead of the team from two seasons ago has had a major resurgence.
 
The Packers opened last season with six straight wins after barely beating the Chargers at Lambeau. It was during that game that Rodgers injured his throwing shoulder, but the Packers and Rodgers, I guess, didn't acknowledge the injury until the Week 11 injury report.
 
However the change in his statistics told the truth and it started with the Chargers game. In the first 5 games he was the Aaron Rodgers we've all grown to love and admire completing 70.6% of his passes (108-of-153) for 1,236 yards (247.2 per game and 11.4 per completion) for 13 TDs and 2 interceptions.
 
However, from the Chargers game on when the Packers fell to 5-6 his completing rate dropped to the lowest of his career 57.0% (239-of-419) for 2,585 yards (235/10.8) with 18 TDs and 6 interceptions.
 
The playoffs weren't any better with his completion rate worse (56.2 on 45-of-80) for 471 yards (235.5/10.5) with 4 TDs and 1 interception.
 
After a full off-season and only playing 16 snaps in the preseason Rodgers continued to have accuracy issues completing 56.1% (78-of-139) for 879 yards (219.8/11.3) with 9 TDs and 3 interceptions during the first 4 games that the Packers split 2-2.
 
It was during the 30-16 loss to the Cowboys that Rodgers began to return to his old form completing 31-of-42 (73.8) for 294 yards with 1 TD and 1 interception.
 
Since the Cowboys game, which included the lone win over the Thanks For The Bears until the Eagles win, Rodgers has completed 68.1% (211-of-310) for 2,195 yards (313.6/10.4) with 18 TDs and 4 interceptions. However, it all went for naught as the Packers lost 4 in a row between the Bears and the Eagles.
 
The change seems to be twofold. First, Rodgers is throwing the ball with more zip to the receiver where he is instead of lobbing it to where he should be. That change has been helped with a shorter passing game the last two games. Monday night he completed 76.9% of his passes (30-of-39) his best since the opening game of last season when he completed 78.3% (18-of-23) against the Thanks For The Bears.    
 
Like I said the Rodgers Renaissance was wasted (as has his career since the Super Bowl, but that complaint is for another time) because Defensive Coordinator Dom Capers' defense is the worse since his predecessor Bob Sanders.
 
During the first 4-games the Packers defense gave up 20.8 points a game while leading the league in run defense although that statistic was TRUMPed up because of the success of the passing game. Starting with the Cowboy loss the defense has given up 32.2 points a game and even worse 38.3 during the 4-game losing streak, including 47 and 42 against two lightweights (the Titans and Redskins) and 33 against the Falcons to waste 32 scored by the offense.
 
Even in the Eagles game where the Packers gave up just 13 points, including 3 in the second half, the defense was far from that dominate. On their first drive Eagles drove 81 yards on 11 plays with 6 first downs to tie the game. Then from the 1-yard line drove 64 yards on 13 plays (4 FD) to kick a field goal just before the half.
 
One thing you have to take into account is that Rodgers and the offense kept the Packers defense off the field limiting the Eagles offense to just 6 drives. However, 3 of those drives were 75 yards or longer resulting in 3 scores.
 
The drive just before the half was the reason Sanders got fired. For those of you who are Johnny Come Latelies, Sanders defense would give up a score just before the half almost every game.
 
Capers defense is just as bad. Besides giving up long drives and being unable to get off the field on 3rd down either by plays or penalties the hallmark of the Capers Era is giving up big plays on a regular basis, especially in the middle of the field, or not being able to hold onto a lead late in the game.
 
The Packers have to run the table in order to get into the playoffs for the 8th straight season and with the game plan and Rodgers cooking on almost all cylinders the Packer Backers are beginning to think it could happen. The euphoria can be heard all the way down to Carbondale.
 
However, the Tedders, Ask Vic and the Packers BrainlessTrust need to come back to Earth. Dom Capers defense is still playing taking to the field giving up 350.2 yards a game.
 
The opposing passers are completing 65% of their passes for 260.6 yards a game while allowing 22 TD passes - the 4th worse in league. The Packers rush defense has dropped from 74 yards per game early in the season to 90.2. In addition, they are allowing 42% success on 3rd downs and 67% on 4th downs.
 
The other problem is lack of turnovers. The sacks have been fine with 28, tying them for 8th in the league behind Denver's 35, but the Packers have forced only 5 fumbles recovering 3 for second to last in the league and intercepted only 8 passes.
 
The measly 8 interceptions is telling because if you look at the NFL statistical leaders former Packers cornerback (this is where a lot of the problem lies with the injuries to Sam Shields, Damarious Randall, Quinten Rollins and Demetri Goodson forcing undrafted free agents to be starters) Casey Hayward (#2 draft pick) and current San Diego Charger is leading the league in interceptions with 6. He was allowed to leave in free agency because Ted Thompson didn't want to pay him. But like Rodgers being wasted that is an old argument for another time.
 
Like I sung when I started this diatribe, "And my head I'd be scratchin' while playoff thoughts were hatchin' if we only had defense."

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